Quantitative analysis of future scenarios of urban mobility using agent-based simulation - A case study

Abstract

Urban mobility is changing and needs to change in order to meet future social requirements in terms of efficient and comfortable transport as well as reduced air pollution and noise. Moreover, climate change leads to an urgent need of reducing the CO2 emissions of transport in general. In this context, electric mobility and car sharing are just two current trends promoting a new way of individual transport that is clean and efficient at the same time. Facilitating public and intermodal transport by suitable measures is another option that is often discussed. The research project "VEU - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt" (Transport and the environment) tried to analyze how traffic and its environmental impact evolve until the year 2040 depending on the general priorities of political and societal decisions in the meantime. For this purpose, three detailed mostly national scenarios describing different possible framework conditions for future transport were developed in a complex process. While one of them (called "Regulated shift 2040") is explicitly focusing on ecological friendliness and sustainability, a second one is more dedicated to an economic-liberal approach (called "Free play 2040"). Finally, the third scenario (called "Reference 2040") can be seen as an attempt of balancing out the contrary interests that are associated with the aforementioned scenarios. The present contribution discusses the more local effects of these scenarios with regard to traffic in urban areas such as the German capital Berlin which was considered for this case study.