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Terminal reliability of road networks with multiple destination options

Neumann, Thorsten and Behrisch, Michael (2018) Terminal reliability of road networks with multiple destination options. Risk Analysis 2018, 6.-8. Jun. 2018, Sevilla, Spain.

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In crisis situations such as natural disasters, it is essential that people can be reached by fire and rescue services as well as police forces. Moreover, access to food and water supply should be possible for everyone, for instance. In all cases, people depend on the (potentially damaged) road infrastructure - modelled as a graph network - that for all nodes in the network should provide connections to at least one supply node of each type (i.e., fire department, hospital etc.) even if some links in the network are currently unavailable. Assuming that there are multiple supply nodes per type among the whole network, the present contribution discusses the risk that a given node of the network becomes isolated from all of these supply nodes depending on the topological structure of the network. For this purpose, the well-known concept of terminal reliability is adapted to the situation with multiple possible destinations which is realized by modifying the original graph appropriately. An algorithm is presented that allows finding all relevant cut sets in the modified graph which are used for computing the probability R that a given node remains connected to at least one of the considered supply nodes depending on estimated link failure probabilities p_i. A simple clustering approach together with Boolean algebra finally yields explicit numbers for R depending on p_i. The whole concept is demonstrated based on an illustrative example showing the different endangerment among the nodes of the network including a discussion about the specific criticality of each network link with regard to ensuring the connectivity between supply nodes and other nodes. Thus, by identifying critical links and quantifying the risk of isolation for all nodes in the network, the present contribution provides useful tools for prevention in crisis management.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/114552/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Terminal reliability of road networks with multiple destination options
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Neumann, ThorstenUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9236-0585UNSPECIFIED
Behrisch, MichaelUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0032-7930UNSPECIFIED
Date:5 June 2018
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Keywords:Transport infrastructure, Network reliability, Vulnerability, Resilience, Crisis Management, Prevention
Event Title:Risk Analysis 2018
Event Location:Sevilla, Spain
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:6.-8. Jun. 2018
Organizer:Wessex Institute, UK; University of Milano-Bicocca, Italy
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Traffic Management (old)
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VM - Verkehrsmanagement
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Vabene++ (old)
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transportation Systems > Data Management and Knowledge Discovery
Institute of Transportation Systems > Evaluation of Transportation
Deposited By: Neumann, Dr.-Ing. Thorsten
Deposited On:09 Aug 2018 10:06
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 20:12

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