A Reanalysis of Aviation Effects from Volcano Eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010

Abstract

The eruption of Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in April 2010 had a tremendous impact on global air traffic and led to 48% canceled flights. This corresponds to 10 million stranded passengers and a loss of approximately 1.5 – 2.5 billion euros for the airlines in just a few days. Within DLR's project VolcATS (Volcanic ash impact on the Air Transportation System) the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 is reprocessed. One of the project's goals is to minimize the impact on air traffic. This contribution shows for one particular scenario the results from simulation trials with varying configurations. Optimization criteria in use are number of flights and flight duration. The target date of consideration is the 17th April 2010 when the ash covered main parts of Europe. For simulation purpose reanalyzed ash cloud data is used. This data categorizes the ash clouds in the three zone model for low (0.2 to 2 mg/m**3), medium (2 to 4 mg/m**3) and high (above 4 mg/m**3) ash concentrations. Unlike the internationally recognized ash cloud forecasts, which are updated in a six hour interval and cover the next 24 hours with 6 hour temporal resolution, the reanalysis is updated in a three hour interval and represents actual state without forecast. To determine actual benefits from this more accurate ash data, a reference air traffic scenario from EUROCONTROL's demand data repository for the European airspace was probed against the ash clouds. On 17th April about 5.000 flights took place. On a day with normal traffic demand of 22.170 flights, the simulation shows - based on remodeled volcanic ash data - that 1.900 more flights can take place. Applying re-routing algorithms, the number of possible flights increases by another 1.500 flights.