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Climate Science for Serving Society

van den Hurk, Bart and Braconnot, Pascale and Eyring, Veronika and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Gleckler, Peter and Knutti, Reto and Teixeira, Joao (2013) Climate Science for Serving Society. In: Climate Science for Serving Society Springer Verlag. pp. 237-248. ISBN ISBN 978-94-007-6692-4.

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Official URL: http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-007-6692-1_9


In spite of the yet incomplete subsample of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model ensemble to date, evaluation of these models is underway. Novel diagnostics and analysis methods are being utilized in order to explore the skill of particular processes, the degree to which models have improved since CMIP3, and particular features of the hindcasts, decadal and centennial projections. These assessments strongly benefit from the increasing availability of state-of-the-art data sets and model output processing techniques. Also paleo-climate analysis proves to be useful for demonstrating the ability of models to simulate climate conditions that are different from present day. The existence of an increasingly wide ensemble of model simulations re-emphasizes the need to carefully consider the implications of model spread. Disparity between projected results does imply that model uncertainty exists, but not necessarily reflects a true estimate of this uncertainty. Projections generated by models with a similar origin or utilizing parameter perturbation techniques generally show more mutual agreement than models with different development histories. Weighting results from different models is a potentially useful technique to improve projections, if the purpose of the weighting is clearly identified. However, there is yet no consensus in the community on how to best achieve this. These findings, discussed at the session “Assessing the reliability of climate models: CMIP5” of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Open Science Conference (OSC), illustrate the need for comprehensive and coordinated model evaluation and data collection. The role that WCRP can play in this coordination is summarized at the end of this chapter.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/91367/
Document Type:Book Section
Title:Climate Science for Serving Society
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
van den Hurk, BartKNMI, NetherlandsUNSPECIFIED
Braconnot, PascaleIPSL, FranceUNSPECIFIED
Friedlingstein, PierreUniv. Exeter, UKUNSPECIFIED
Date:8 May 2013
Journal or Publication Title:Climate Science for Serving Society
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Page Range:pp. 237-248
Publisher:Springer Verlag
ISBN:ISBN 978-94-007-6692-4
Keywords:Climate and human health - Climate and sustainable development - Climate and weather extremes - Climate prediction - Climate services
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Projekt ESMVal (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Ziegele, Brigitte
Deposited On:05 Nov 2014 15:53
Last Modified:05 Nov 2014 15:53

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