Emergent constraints on climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in the CMIP5 Earth system models

Abstract

An emergent linear relationship between the long-termsensitivity of tropical land carbon storage to climate warming (γLT) and the short-term sensitivity of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)tointerannual temperature variability (γIAV) has previously been identified by Cox et al. (2013) across an ensemble of Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). Here we examine whether such a constraint also holds for a new set of eight ESMs participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. A wide spread in tropical land carbon storage is found for the quadrupling of atmospheric CO2,which is of the order of 252±112 GtCwhen carbon-climate feedbacks are enabled. Correspondingly, the spread in γLT is wide (?49±40 GtC/K) and thus remains one of the key uncertainties in climate projections. A tight correlation is found between the long-term sensitivity of tropical land carbon and the short-termsensitivity of atmospheric CO2 (γLT versus γIAV),which enables the projections to be constrainedwith observations. The observed short-termsensitivity ofCO2 (?4.4±0.9GtC/yr/K) sharpens the range of γLT to ?44±14 GtC/K, which overlaps with the probability density function derived from the C4MIP models (?53±17 GtC/K) by Cox et al. (2013), even though the lines relating γLT and γIAV differ in the two cases. Emergent constraints of this type provide ameans to focus ESMevaluation against observations on themetrics most relevant to projections of future climate change. 1.