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Emergent constraints on climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in the CMIP5 Earth system models

Wenzel, Sabrina and Cox, Peter and Eyring, Veronika and Friedlingstein, Pierre (2014) Emergent constraints on climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in the CMIP5 Earth system models. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES, pp. 794-807. Wiley. DOI: [10.1002/2013JG002591] ISSN 2169-8953

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Official URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JG002591/abstract

Abstract

An emergent linear relationship between the long-termsensitivity of tropical land carbon storage to climate warming (γLT) and the short-term sensitivity of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)tointerannual temperature variability (γIAV) has previously been identified by Cox et al. (2013) across an ensemble of Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). Here we examine whether such a constraint also holds for a new set of eight ESMs participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. A wide spread in tropical land carbon storage is found for the quadrupling of atmospheric CO2,which is of the order of 252±112 GtCwhen carbon-climate feedbacks are enabled. Correspondingly, the spread in γLT is wide (?49±40 GtC/K) and thus remains one of the key uncertainties in climate projections. A tight correlation is found between the long-term sensitivity of tropical land carbon and the short-termsensitivity of atmospheric CO2 (γLT versus γIAV),which enables the projections to be constrainedwith observations. The observed short-termsensitivity ofCO2 (?4.4±0.9GtC/yr/K) sharpens the range of γLT to ?44±14 GtC/K, which overlaps with the probability density function derived from the C4MIP models (?53±17 GtC/K) by Cox et al. (2013), even though the lines relating γLT and γIAV differ in the two cases. Emergent constraints of this type provide ameans to focus ESMevaluation against observations on themetrics most relevant to projections of future climate change. 1.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/90055/
Document Type:Article
Title:Emergent constraints on climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in the CMIP5 Earth system models
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Wenzel, SabrinaDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Cox, PeterCollege of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Devon, UKUNSPECIFIED
Eyring, VeronikaDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Friedlingstein, PierreCollege of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Devon, UKUNSPECIFIED
Date:12 May 2014
Journal or Publication Title:JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :[10.1002/2013JG002591]
Page Range:pp. 794-807
Publisher:Wiley
ISSN:2169-8953
Status:Published
Keywords:• Tropical land carbon loss is a key uncertainty in climate change projections • CO2 interannual variability is linearly related to tropical carbon loss in CMIP5 • Observed variability in CO2 constrains projections of future carbon losses Correspondence
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Projekt ESMVal (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Wenzel, Sabrina
Deposited On:30 Jul 2014 11:21
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 19:47

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