Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques in Aircraft Design and Evaluation Processes

Abstract

Air transportation systems are complex, interdisciplinary integrated systems, because there are large numbers of components with different characteristics. It is challenging to assess new technology in complex, interdisciplinary integrated systems, such as air transportation systems. The focus of this research is one element in complex air transportation systems: aircraft. The success of an aircraft is no longer dominated by economic criteria. Several other criteria, such as environmental aspects and level of comfort, need to be taken into consideration. Therefore, aircraft design and evaluation are typical multi-criteria decision problems and need to be prudently conducted. One solution is to apply Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques. The goal of this research is to investigate how MCDA techniques can be applied in order to provide better decision aiding for stakeholders in air transportation systems. First, an advanced approach to effectively select the most appropriate decision analysis method for a given decision making problem is formulated and presented in this research. This method selection approach is implemented and an intelligent multi-criteria decision support system is developed. Second, a new approach is proposed for assessing the uncertainties propagated in the decision analysis process. The uncertainty assessment approach consists of four steps: uncertainty characterization, uncertainty analysis, local sensitivity analysis, and global sensitivity analysis. This novel approach for uncertainty assessment can be used to aggregate input data from tools with different fidelity levels and is capable of propagating uncertainties in an assessment chain. Third, two proofs of concept are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of applying the most appropriate MCDA techniques in aircraft design and evaluation processes. In order to efficiently assess the uncertainties related to the subjective preference information in aircraft design process, surrogate models for design criteria in terms of weighting factors are developed. Furthermore, soft criteria quantification in aircraft evaluation process permits the synergy of hard technical criteria and additional soft criteria for the MCDA techniques.