DLR-Logo -> http://www.dlr.de
DLR Portal Home | Imprint | Privacy Policy | Contact | Deutsch
Fontsize: [-] Text [+]

Development of a Forecast Model for Global Air Traffic Emissions

Schaefer, Martin (2012) Development of a Forecast Model for Global Air Traffic Emissions. DLR-Forschungsbericht. DLR-FB--2012-08. Dissertation. Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt. 235 S.



This study describes the methodology and results of a simulation model that quantifies fuel consumption and emissions of civil air traffic. Besides covering historical emissions, the model aims at forecasting emissions in the medium-term future. For this purpose, simulation models of aircraft and engine types are used in combination with a database of global flight movements and assumptions about traffic growth, fleet rollover and operational aspects. Results from an application of the model include emissions of scheduled air traffic for the years 2000 to 2010 as well as forecasted emissions until the year 2030. In a baseline scenario of the forecast, input assumptions (e.g. traffic growth rates) are in line with predictions by the aircraft industry. Considering the effects of advanced technologies of the short-term and medium-term future, the forecast focusses on fuel consumption and emissions of nitric oxides. Calculations for historical air traffic additionally cover emissions of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons and soot. Results are validated against reference data including studies by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and simulation results from international research projects.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/77004/
Document Type:Monograph (DLR-Forschungsbericht, Dissertation)
Title:Development of a Forecast Model for Global Air Traffic Emissions
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Date:14 August 2012
Open Access:Yes
Number of Pages:235
Keywords:Aviation, air traffic, emissions, emissions forecast, fuel consumption, nitric oxides, NOx, soot, black carbon, Luftfahrt, Luftverkehr, Emissionen, Emissionsprognose, Treibstoffverbrauch, Stickoxide, Ruß
Institution:Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt
Department:Institut für Antriebstechnik
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Integrierte Modellierung des Luftverkehrssystems (old)
Location: Köln-Porz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Propulsion Technology > Engine
Deposited By: Schaefer, Martin
Deposited On:22 Aug 2012 11:19
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 19:37

Repository Staff Only: item control page

Help & Contact
electronic library is running on EPrints 3.3.12
Website and database design: Copyright © German Aerospace Center (DLR). All rights reserved.