Competitive Cost Analysis of Alternative Powertrain Technologies.

Abstract

This paper examines the cost competitiveness of different electrified propulsion technologies from hybrid cars to full battery electric vehicles in the time horizon 2010 to 2020. The assessment shows that the current TCO gaps for alternative drivetrains will increasingly converge over time mainly driven by decreasing production cost. However, the cost-efficiency of different powertrain architectures depends highly on the mileage a user expects to drive per year. In the mid-run, hybrid electric vehicles (especially with external charging) will be an attractive option in particular for users with high annual mileages, who can benefit from the low operating cost of EVs in combination with unlimited driving range. The analysis concludes that there will be a variety of competing drivetrain architectures in the market, which in turn leads to increased risk and complex decision making for the portfolio of automotive OEMs and suppliers.