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Spatio-Temporal Population Distribution and Evacuation Modeling for Improving Tsunami Risk Assessment in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area

Freire, Sergio and Aubrecht, Christoph and Wegscheider, Stephanie (2011) Spatio-Temporal Population Distribution and Evacuation Modeling for Improving Tsunami Risk Assessment in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. Gi4DM 2011, 2011-05-03 - 2011-05-08, Antalya, Türkei.

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Official URL: http://www.isprs.org/proceedings/2011/Gi4DM/PDF/OP32.pdf


Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to significant risk of tsunami, and was hit by a very destructive earthquake-triggered tsunami during daytime in 1755. The Regional Plan for Territorial Management for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (PROT), under discussion, includes a tsunami hazard map, showing that significant urbanized areas may be at risk of inundation. In order to consider the time dependence of population exposure to tsunami threats, we map and analyze the spatio-temporal population distribution in the daily cycle in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. High-resolution day- and nighttime population distribution maps are developed using ‘intelligent dasymetric mapping’, i.e. using areal interpolation to combine best-available census data and statistics with land use and land cover data. Mobility statistics are considered for mapping daytime distribution, and empirical parameters used for interpolation are obtained from a previous modeling effort of part of the study area. In combination with the tsunami hazard map, information on infrastructure, land use and terrain slope, the modeled population distribution is used to assess people’s evacuation times, applying a GIS-based evacuation modeling approach to the city of Lisbon. The detailed spatio-temporal population exposure assessment allows producing both day- and nighttime evacuation time maps, which provide valuable input for evacuation planning and management. Results show that a significant amount of population is potentially at risk, and its numbers increase dramatically from nighttime to daytime, especially in the zones of high susceptibility. Also, full evacuation can be problematic in the daytime period, even if initiated immediately after a major earthquake. The presented approach is considered to greatly improve risk mapping and assessment and can benefit all phases of the disaster management process.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/74594/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Spatio-Temporal Population Distribution and Evacuation Modeling for Improving Tsunami Risk Assessment in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Freire, SergioNew University of LisbonUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Aubrecht, ChristophAIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbHUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:May 2011
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Keywords:Tsunami, Risk mapping, Population exposure, Dasymetric mapping, Lisbon
Event Title:Gi4DM 2011
Event Location:Antalya, Türkei
Event Type:international Conference
Event Start Date:3 May 2011
Event End Date:8 May 2011
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Zivile Kriseninformation und Georisiken (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:German Remote Sensing Data Center > Civil Crisis Information and Geo Risks
Deposited By: Wegscheider, Stephanie
Deposited On:30 Jan 2012 09:21
Last Modified:24 Apr 2024 19:40

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