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Assessment of human immediate response capability related to tsunami threats in Indonesia at a sub-national scale

Post, Joachim und Wegscheider, Stephanie und Mück, Matthias und Zosseder, Kai und Kiefl, Ralph und Steinmetz, Tilmann und Strunz, Günter (2009) Assessment of human immediate response capability related to tsunami threats in Indonesia at a sub-national scale. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9 (4), Seiten 1075-1086. Copernicus Publications. ISSN 1561-8633

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Offizielle URL: http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/9/1075/2009/


Human immediate response is contextualized into different time compartments reflecting the tsunami early warning chain. Based on the different time compartments the available response time and evacuation time is quantified. The latter incorporates accessibility of safe areas determined by a hazard assessment, as well as environmental and demographic impacts on evacuation speed properties assessed using a Cost Distance Weighting GIS approach. Approximately 4.35 million Indonesians live in tsunami endangered areas on the southern coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali and have between 20 and 150 min to reach a tsunami-safe area. Most endangered areas feature longer estimated-evacuation times and hence the population possesses a weak immediate response capability leaving them more vulnerable to being directly impacted by a tsunami. At a sub-national scale these hotspots were identified and include: the Mentawai islands off the Sumatra coast, various sub-districts on Sumatra and west and east Java. Based on the presented approach a temporal dynamic estimation of casualties and displacements as a function of available response time is obtained for the entire coastal area. As an example, a worst case tsunami scenario for Kuta (Bali) results in casualties of 25 000 with an optimal response time (direct evacuation when receiving a tsunami warning) and 120 000 for minimal response time (no evacuation). The estimated casualties correspond well to observed/reported values and overall model uncertainty is low with a standard error of 5%. The results obtained allow for prioritization of intervention measures such as early warning chain, evacuation and contingency planning, awareness and preparedness strategies down to a sub-district level and can be used in tsunami early warning decision support.

Titel:Assessment of human immediate response capability related to tsunami threats in Indonesia at a sub-national scale
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iD
Post, JoachimJoachim.Post@dlr.deNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Wegscheider, Stephaniestephanie.wegscheider@dlr.deNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Mück, Matthiasmatthias.mueck@dlr.deNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Zosseder, Kaikai.zosseder@dlr.deNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Kiefl, Ralphralph.kiefl@dlr.deNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Steinmetz, Tilmanntilmann.steinmetz@dlr.deNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Strunz, GünterGuenter.Strunz@dlr.deNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:Juli 2009
Erschienen in:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Referierte Publikation:Ja
In Open Access:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Ja
Seitenbereich:Seiten 1075-1086
Verlag:Copernicus Publications
Stichwörter:Risk, Vulnerability, Early Warning, Tsunami, Indonesia
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Verkehr und Weltraum (alt)
HGF - Programm:Weltraum (alt)
HGF - Programmthema:W - keine Zuordnung
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Weltraum
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:W - keine Zuordnung
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):W - keine Zuordnung (alt)
Standort: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institute & Einrichtungen:Deutsches Fernerkundungsdatenzentrum > Umwelt und Sicherheit
Hinterlegt von: Post, Dr.rer.nat. Joachim
Hinterlegt am:10 Aug 2009 09:03
Letzte Änderung:12 Dez 2013 20:40

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