Techno-Economic Assessments of Fuel Cells and Batteries

Abstract

For assessing the chances of market introduction of a new technology it is necessary to judge its maturity and any likely future developments, especially in regard to technical properties as well as production costs. Patent and publication analyses give an insight on the current position of a technology regarding its life cycle and together with an analysis of research and development expenditures they allow a prediction of future development with respect to maturity. A detailed assessment of past progress of key technological parameters and their technical limits enables judgement of the probability of reaching target values set for the future. Examination of production costs using a combination of a top-down learning curve approach and a bottom-up mass production costs approach identifies potentials for future cost reductions. Finally, an integrated modelling taking into account development of competing technologies and a set of external influencing parameters helps to set up profound scenarios for future competitiveness of the technology and its supposable success on the market. The method of techno-economic assessment is applied to the technologies of fuel cells and batteries illustrating past developments and resulting in an outlook on a likely future introduction of both technologies with focus on the market for passenger car propulsion systems.