Electrification of passenger vehicles – A model based assessment of future market prospects, energy need and CO2 emissions

Abstract

In order to assess future market prospects and environmental impacts of electric vehicles, it is necessary to not only focus on an analysis of individual concepts, but to furthermore compare different technologies and to analyze in detail the competitive situation with regard to established conventional vehicle propulsion technologies. In the work to be presented we focus on the example of passenger cars in Germany up to the year 2030, using an integrated approach for comparing different vehicle technologies based on innovative computer models. Specific energy need and CO2 emissions of each vehicle concept are analyzed for various vehicle size categories and driving cycles. For our assessment we have developed a simulation library for alternative vehicles which is based on the object oriented modeling standard Modelica. It allows characterization of various vehicle concepts and their electrical, mechanical or thermal behavior. For analyzing different scenarios for future market shares of vehicle technologies, their energy need and CO2 emissions we use a newly built computer model which includes data on various vehicle technologies, customers and external effects. Assuming a mostly rational choice behavior of customers when choosing vehicle technologies within a vehicle size category, the number of vehicles differentiated by vehicle technology is calculated for each year of the simulation, using for example information on total cost of ownership (TCO) for each vehicle and taking into account learning curve effects for future costs of batteries and other technical components. Key results of the assessment are future market shares of vehicle technologies, energy need and CO2 emissions of the new vehicle fleet and the existing vehicle stock.