Quantifying the effects of aviation on radiative forcing and temperature with a climate response model

Abstract

Simplified climate models can be used to calculate and to compare temperature response contributions from small forcings without the need for considerable computer resources. A linear climate response model using Green’s functions has been formulated to calculate radiative forcing (RF) and the global mean temperature response from aviation. The model, LinClim, can calculate aviation RF for CO2, O3, CH4, water vapour, contrails, sulphate and black carbon aerosols. From these RFs, temperature responses may be calculated for individual effects in order to determine their relative importance by applying preliminary values for efficacies. The LinClim model is tuned to reproduce the dominant mode of its parent coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM, ECHAM4/OPYC3. LinClim is able to reproduce the IPCC (1999) 2050 aviation-related forcings. The model is shown through some example application analyses to be a useful tool for exploring the effects of aviation on RF and temperature response.