Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk Assessment Using Logistic Regression of Remote Sensing Parameters in High Mountain Asia

Abstract

The High Mountain Asia (HMA) continues to witness an increased frequency of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which is likely in response to continued global warming. In situ measurements to understand the triggers all across the region will remain inadequate given the vastness and lack of accessibility of the region. This work explores a data-driven logistic regression-based framework to evaluate potential GLOF triggers, such as the lake dam type, its surface area, aspect, distance, freeboard, slope, precipitation, and temperature. A comprehensive inventory of past GLOF events in the region has been compiled, with 25 events verified using pre- & post-event multispectral images acquired between 2016 and 2022. The logistic regression model is developed using samples of the positive class (lakes with confirmed GLOFs) and of the negative class (potentially dangerous lakes that have not experienced a GLOF event). The samples of the negative lake class were collected with resembling characteristics from the nearby areas of the positive class. We randomly keep 80% of the samples for training. The models performance is assessed using adjusted R2 and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) on the test samples, which are 79% and 21.5, respectively. The classification accuracy is 90%, which is promising. In short, the proposed method is a useful tool to investigate risk of outburst flooding of glacial lakes.