Impact of stochastic vehicle generation on traffic microsimulation model output

Abstract

One of the most important characteristics of microsimulation is the ability to model the temporal and spatial nature of traffic demand. Every traffic microsimulation has a vehicle generation model that determines how and when the driver-vehicle units are introduced in the simulation. While microsimulation use has become increasingly popular, it is unclear how the vehicle generation options affect the final result. The purpose of this paper is to examine the stochastic component of the vehicle generation model and how it may affect the simulation output. Three scenarios, including the passenger car equivalent (PCE) model of the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM-7), were used for assessing stochastic volumes and their impacts on performance measures. Results indicate a statistically significant impact of the variability of stochastic volumes on the estimation of performance measures at the breakdown flow phase and synchronized flow phase for interrupted and uninterrupted flow conditions, respectively. This finding highlights the importance of reporting vehicle generation as a calibration parameter, enabling others to replicate the experiments. When utilizing microsimulations for the assessment of roadway/system performance, it is crucial for users to have a thorough understanding of demand generation.