Sensitivity analysis of aerial wildfire fighting tactics with heterogeneous fleets using an agent based simulation framework

Abstract

The increasing global surface temperature has expanded wildfire seasons, resulting in more intense incidents and higher suppression costs, losses, and casualties. Wildfires also contribute significantly to atmospheric carbon levels, exacerbating climate change. This study investigates the complexities of wildfire suppression using a System of Systems (SoS) approach, incorporating factors like response time, fleet composition, and suppression tactics. Through an Agent-Based Simulation (ABS) framework, we analyze the impact of environmental factors on fire spread and evaluate different firefighting tactics. The study extends previous research by offering: 1. An extensive analysis for the effect of wildfire environment parameters on fire spread. 2. Multiple suppression tactics which open the door to new solutions for wildfire fighting in addition to revealing nuanced trends at the system of systems level by using Agent-Based Simulation framework. 3. A heterogeneous fleet composed of various suppression drones with different airframe configurations, payload capacity, flight velocity, and powertrain architecture.