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Decarbonizing the German transport sector: Why the 2030 sector targets are likely to be missed

Seibert, Dennis and Mocanu, Tudor and Österle, Ines and Matteis, Tilman and Koller, Florian (2023) Decarbonizing the German transport sector: Why the 2030 sector targets are likely to be missed. In: 2022 Conference Proceedings Transport Research Arena, TRA Lisbon 2022, 72, pp. 2784-2791. Elsevier B.V.. Transport Research Arena (TRA) Conference, 2022-11-14 - 2022-11-17, Lissabon, Portugal. doi: 10.1016/j.trpro.2023.11.821. ISSN 2352-1457.

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Abstract

In order to meet its 2030 climate sector target, the German transport sector must experience a trend reversal and reduce its greenhouse gas emissions drastically. Envisioned technological solutions vary between different modes of transport and technological readiness. By making use of an integrated model chain we examine possible short-run emission reductions for different technology pathways. Through fleet and transport demand modeling we provide final energy demand and CO2 emissions of the sector at five-year intervals. Modeling results show short-run emission reductions mainly in passenger car traffic. However, all technology pathways overshoot the 2030 sector target considerably. Consequently, ambitious measures that induce an avoidance and shifting of trips must complement the rapid ramp up of electric powertrains to meet the sector target.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/201787/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Decarbonizing the German transport sector: Why the 2030 sector targets are likely to be missed
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Seibert, DennisUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6833-6529UNSPECIFIED
Mocanu, TudorUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2883-0121152227417
Österle, InesUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Matteis, TilmanUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Koller, FlorianUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2420-8995UNSPECIFIED
Date:2023
Journal or Publication Title:2022 Conference Proceedings Transport Research Arena, TRA Lisbon 2022
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:No
Volume:72
DOI:10.1016/j.trpro.2023.11.821
Page Range:pp. 2784-2791
Publisher:Elsevier B.V.
Series Name:Transportation Research Procedia
ISSN:2352-1457
Status:Published
Keywords:Decarbonizing the transport sector German 2030 sector target CO2 emissions zero emission powertrains
Event Title:Transport Research Arena (TRA) Conference
Event Location:Lissabon, Portugal
Event Type:international Conference
Event Start Date:14 November 2022
Event End Date:17 November 2022
Organizer:Transport Research Arena (TRA)
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - SYSTÖK - Strategische Optionen für Energieträger im Verkehr
Location: Berlin-Adlershof , Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transport Research > Means of Transport
Institute of Transport Research > Spaces in Mobility and Transport Systems
Institute of Vehicle Concepts
Institute of Transport Research > Transport Markets and Mobility Services
Institute of Transport Research > Institute and Strategy Development
Deposited By: Mocanu, Tudor
Deposited On:02 Feb 2024 19:52
Last Modified:24 Apr 2024 21:02

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