Decarbonizing the German transport sector: Why the 2030 sector targets are likely to be missed

Kurzfassung

In order to meet its 2030 climate sector target, the German transport sector must experience a trend reversal and reduce its greenhouse gas emissions drastically. Envisioned technological solutions vary between different modes of transport and technological readiness. By making use of an integrated model chain we examine possible short-run emission reductions for different technology pathways. Through fleet and transport demand modeling we provide final energy demand and CO2 emissions of the sector at five-year intervals. Modeling results show short-run emission reductions mainly in passenger car traffic. However, all technology pathways overshoot the 2030 sector target considerably. Consequently, ambitious measures that induce an avoidance and shifting of trips must complement the rapid ramp up of electric powertrains to meet the sector target.