Hands-On Session on Causal Mediation Analysis & Corresponding Poster

Abstract

This poster will give an overview on the role of causal methods in under- standing mechanisms behind extreme events. Potential applications within the XAIDA project range from real-time-indication, detection and inspection of rel- evant processes to attribution on - e. g. climate-change induced - interventions and counterfactuals. The methods developed in WP4 will be presented as a three-step approach: (1) Causal Discovery to unveil qualitative causal relations in form of a causal graph; (2) Causal Effect-Estimation and Mediation analysis to quantify effects and attribute them to specific pathways (or mechanisms); (3) 'Templates' demonstrating on toymodels what kind of problems could be tackled with these methods, with the idea that these are open for discussion (and extension) to identify interesting questions both relevant to applications and attainable from the method side.