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Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6

Galytska, Evgenia and Weigel, Katja and Handorf, Dörthe and Jaiser, Ralf and Köhler, Raphael and Runge, Jakob and Eyring, Veronika (2023) Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128 (17). Wiley. doi: 10.1029/2022JD037978. ISSN 2169-897X.

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Official URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037978


To analyze links among key processes that contribute to Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections we apply causal discovery based on graphical models known as causal graphs. First, we calculate the causal dependencies from observations during 1980–2021. Observations show several robust connections from early to late winter, such as atmospheric blocking within central Asia via the Ural blocking and Siberian High, the North Atlantic Oscillation phase and the polar vortex (PV). The PV is affected by poleward eddy heat flux at 100 hPa, which is also directly connected with the Aleutian Low. We then evaluate climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) by comparing their causal graphs with those derived from observations. Compared to observations, CMIP6 historical and future simulations do not robustly capture Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections arising from Arctic sea ice variability. This highlights the role of atmospheric internal variability in modulating the Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections. However, we find several distinct patterns that are simulated by most of the analyzed climate models. For example, both historical and future model simulations robustly capture observed atmospheric blocking in central Asia. But contrary to observations, model simulations show a robust link between the Arctic temperature and sea ice cover over Barents and Kara seas. The analysis of future changes also reveals that the connection between the Aleutian Low and the poleward eddy heat flux at 100 hPa is expected to become more robust toward the end of the 21st century than in the analyzed past.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/198511/
Document Type:Article
Title:Evaluating Causal Arctic‐Midlatitude Teleconnections in CMIP6
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Galytska, EvgeniaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6575-1559145342343
Weigel, KatjaUniversität Bremen, Bremen, Germany and DLR, IPAUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Handorf, DörtheAlfred Wegener Institute, Potsdam, Germanyhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3305-6882UNSPECIFIED
Jaiser, RalfAlfred Wegener Institute, Potsdam, Germanyhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5685-9637UNSPECIFIED
Köhler, RaphaelAlfred Wegener Institute, Potsdam, Germanyhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3378-8012UNSPECIFIED
Runge, JakobDLR Jena, Germany, and Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, GermanyUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Eyring, VeronikaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6887-4885UNSPECIFIED
Date:23 September 2023
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Keywords:causality; Arctic-midlatitude teleconnections; CMIP6
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Atmospheric and climate research
Location: Bremen , Jena , Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Model Evaluation and Analysis
Institute of Data Science > Data Analysis and Intelligence
Deposited By: Galytska, Evgenia
Deposited On:26 Oct 2023 14:38
Last Modified:27 Oct 2023 07:56

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