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Lifetime nowcasting of thunderstorms over Germany using a multi-source data-based fuzzy-logic approach

Zöbisch, Isabella and Zinner, Tobias and Wapler, Kathrin (2023) Lifetime nowcasting of thunderstorms over Germany using a multi-source data-based fuzzy-logic approach. Meteorologische Zeitschrift (1202), pp. 1-13. Borntraeger Science Publishers. doi: 10.1127/metz/2023/1202. ISSN 0941-2948.

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Official URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.1127/metz/2023/1202

Abstract

Due to technical progress in sensor technology and computer power, observation and model data are operationally available today with a high spatial and temporal resolution, suitable for thunderstorm detection and prediction. However, nowcasting the remaining lifetime of an observed thunderstorm is still a challenge to date. To improve nowcasting of deep convective cells, we developed the algorithm LOC-lifetime that predicts the remaining lifetime of thunderstorms based on life-cycle signatures present in satellite, radar, lightning and numerical weather prediction model data. We use the mathematical method “fuzzy logic” to combine this multi-source input and to categorize the thunderstorm evolution into the life-cycle sets growth and decay. We analyzed a data set of almost 1,800 thunderstorms that occurred during the summer months June 2016, May, June, July 2017 and June 2018. The data reveal highly variable life cycles which make it difficult to predict the remaining lifetime on basis of life-cycle statistics. Nevertheless, LOC-lifetime offers an improved nowcasting quality compared to a simpler nowcasting method as it increases the probability of correct prediction and reduces the root-mean-square error. Therefore, we propose the lifetime prediction via LOC-lifetime as a useful tool in combination with other existing algorithms to nowcast and forecast thunderstorms

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/198021/
Document Type:Article
Title:Lifetime nowcasting of thunderstorms over Germany using a multi-source data-based fuzzy-logic approach
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Zöbisch, IsabellaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2035-7931UNSPECIFIED
Zinner, TobiasLMU, MünchenUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Wapler, KathrinDWD OffenbachUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:15 September 2023
Journal or Publication Title:Meteorologische Zeitschrift
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI:10.1127/metz/2023/1202
Page Range:pp. 1-13
Publisher:Borntraeger Science Publishers
ISSN:0941-2948
Status:Published
Keywords:thunderstorms, Germany, nowcasting, multi-source, fuzzy logic
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AI - Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Transport Meteorology
Deposited By: Ziegele, Brigitte
Deposited On:11 Oct 2023 09:35
Last Modified:19 Oct 2023 15:26

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