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Comparison of short-term (hour-ahead) solar irradiance forecasts from all-sky imagers and satellite images

Schmidt, Thomas and Stührenberg, Jonas and Blum, Niklas and Lezaca Galeano, Jorge Enrique and Hammer, Annette and Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion and Vogt, Thomas (2023) Comparison of short-term (hour-ahead) solar irradiance forecasts from all-sky imagers and satellite images. International Conference of Energy Meteorology ICEM, 25.-28.Juni 2023, Padua, Italien.

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The all sky imagers (ASI) network Eye2Sky has been used for short-term solar irradiance forecasting in the urban area of the city of Oldenburg, in northwest Germany. Eye2Sky is a network of ASI and meteorological measurement instruments operated by DLR. This network is the basis for very short-term, high resolution and accurate predictions of solar irradiance in the upcoming minutes (nowcast). A high density of ASI with low spatial distances between cameras in the urban area allow an almost full coverage of the city (about 10x12 km). On the other hand, ASI-based solar irradiance nowcasts lack long forecast horizons due to their limited field of view (typically 15 minutes for single cameras). With a network of ASIs not only the coverage is increased but also the forecast horizon. Forecasting methods based on satellite images or numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are use as the standard for solar power forecasts. They provide larger spatial coverages and longer forecast horizons compared to ASI forecasts. On the contrary, due to their limited resolution and update rates the accuracy for short-term horizons and single sites is reduced. Here, we demonstrate the value of a network of ASI inside an urban environment for the spatial coverage and forecast horizon. Moreover, we show a comparison of forecast accuracy between the ASI nowcasts and the reference forecasts from satellite and a NWP model. These studies are the basis for a seamless forecasting strategy covering always finer spatial and temporal scales for intra-day applications. The main objective is to provide the highest available accuracy based on the hybridization of multiple data sources. We are looking for an intensive exchange with research and industry on the application of short-term solar forecasting in modern renewable energy driven energy systems, e.g. the use of short-term forecasts in the operation of large PV plants. Any feedback from stakeholders on their needs and requirements will support us to adapt nowcasting strategies to specific applications.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/197562/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Comparison of short-term (hour-ahead) solar irradiance forecasts from all-sky imagers and satellite images
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Schmidt, ThomasUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3205-2724UNSPECIFIED
Stührenberg, JonasUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3777-2632UNSPECIFIED
Blum, NiklasUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1541-7234UNSPECIFIED
Lezaca Galeano, Jorge EnriqueUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5513-7467UNSPECIFIED
Hammer, AnnetteUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5630-3620UNSPECIFIED
Schroedter-Homscheidt, MarionUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1854-903XUNSPECIFIED
Vogt, ThomasUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6268-8694UNSPECIFIED
Date:27 June 2023
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Keywords:Sky Imager, Nowcasts, Solar Irradiance
Event Title:International Conference of Energy Meteorology ICEM
Event Location:Padua, Italien
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:25.-28.Juni 2023
Organizer:World Renewable Energy Council
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Energy System Design
HGF - Program Themes:Energy System Transformation
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy System Technology and Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment, E - Condition Monitoring
Location: Oldenburg
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Networked Energy Systems
Institute of Solar Research
Deposited By: Schmidt, Dr Thomas
Deposited On:28 Sep 2023 12:45
Last Modified:28 Sep 2023 12:45

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