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Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change

Friedel, M. and Chiodo, G. and Sukhodolov, T. and Keeble, J. and Peter, T. and Seeber, S. and Stenke, A. and Akiyoshi, H. and Rozanov, E. and Plummer, D. and Jöckel, Patrick and Zeng, G. and Morgenstern, O. and Josse, B. (2023) Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), 23 (17), pp. 10235-10254. Copernicus Publications. doi: 10.5194/acp-23-10235-2023. ISSN 1680-7316.

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Official URL: https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/10235/2023/


In the Arctic stratosphere, the combination of chemical ozone depletion by halogenated ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) and dynamic fluctuations can lead to severe ozone minima. These Arctic ozone minima are of great societal concern due to their health and climate impacts. Owing to the success of the Montreal Protocol, hODSs in the stratosphere are gradually declining, resulting in a recovery of the ozone layer. On the other hand, continued greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cool the stratosphere, possibly enhancing the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and, thus, enabling more efficient chemical ozone destruction. Other processes, such as the acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, also affect stratospheric temperatures, further complicating the picture. Therefore, it is currently unclear whether major Arctic ozone minima will still occur at the end of the 21st century despite decreasing hODSs. We have examined this question for different emission pathways using simulations conducted within the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1 and CCMI-2022) and found large differences in the models' ability to simulate the magnitude of ozone minima in the present-day climate. Models with a generally too-cold polar stratosphere (cold bias) produce pronounced ozone minima under present-day climate conditions because they simulate more PSCs and, thus, high concentrations of active chlorine species (ClOx). These models predict the largest decrease in ozone minima in the future. Conversely, models with a warm polar stratosphere (warm bias) have the smallest sensitivity of ozone minima to future changes in hODS and GHG concentrations. As a result, the scatter among models in terms of the magnitude of Arctic spring ozone minima will decrease in the future. Overall, these results suggest that Arctic ozone minima will become weaker over the next decades, largely due to the decline in hODS abundances. We note that none of the models analysed here project a notable increase of ozone minima in the future. Stratospheric cooling caused by increasing GHG concentrations is expected to play a secondary role as its effect in the Arctic stratosphere is weakened by opposing radiative and dynamical mechanisms.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/197398/
Document Type:Article
Title:Weakening of springtime Arctic ozone depletion with climate change
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Friedel, M.ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Chiodo, G.ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Sukhodolov, T.Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos, SwitzerlandUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Keeble, J.University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Peter, T.ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Seeber, S.ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Stenke, A.ETH Zurich, Zurich, SwitzerlandUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Akiyoshi, H.National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, JapanUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Rozanov, E.Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium DavosSwitzerlandUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Plummer, D.Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, CanadaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Jöckel, PatrickDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8964-1394UNSPECIFIED
Morgenstern, O.NIWA, Wellington, New ZealandUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Josse, B.Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, FranceUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:14 September 2023
Journal or Publication Title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Page Range:pp. 10235-10254
Publisher:Copernicus Publications
Keywords:ozone depletion, Earth System Modelling, EMAC, MESSy, stratospheric ozone
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Atmospheric and climate research, R - Project Climatic relevance of atmospheric tracer gases, aerosols and clouds
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Jöckel, Dr. Patrick
Deposited On:21 Sep 2023 09:50
Last Modified:21 Sep 2023 09:50

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