Estimating Maintenance Costs of New Aircraft Concepts under Uncertainties: A Feasibility Study

Abstract

The push for greener air mobility has led to innovative aircraft designs. To ensure their viability, it is essential to minimize environmental impact and ensure profitability. This requires analyzing life cycle costs, including maintenance. Despite technological advances such as hydrogen storage systems, research into maintenance costs remains limited. This study aims to estimate the maintenance costs of hydrogen storage systems as part of the life cycle costs of a hydrogen-powered aircraft. By comparing conventional and hydrogen-powered aircraft concepts, technical differences of the fuel storage systems are examined, and expert insights on initial cost, lifetime, and maintenance effort are gathered. Initial scarcity of data prevents using typical probabilistic methods, so the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence is used to harness expert opinions. A global sensitivity analysis quantifies the impact of input uncertainty on maintenance costs, identifying key cost drivers and parameter effects. Systematic input variation identifies critical factors for further investigation and design improvements. This study demonstrates the early estimation of maintenance costs through an innovative framework. The results improve the understanding of maintenance costs and associated conditions and serve as a basis for decision-making on the integration of hydrogen storage systems and new aviation technologies. Further information will be published soon.