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Climate impact of Contrail Cirrus: From conventional and Effective Radiative Forcings to Surface Temperature Change

Bickel, Marius and Ponater, Michael and Burkhardt, Ulrike and Righi, Mattia and Hendricks, Johannes and Jöckel, Patrick and Bock, Lisa (2023) Climate impact of Contrail Cirrus: From conventional and Effective Radiative Forcings to Surface Temperature Change. IUGG 2023, 2023-07-11 - 2023-07-20, Berlin, Deutschland.

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Abstract

Global temperature change and climate sensitivity in response to an external radiative forcing are known to be modified by radiative feedbacks. The net impact of global aviation on climate originates from CO2 as well as from non-CO2 emission components. So far, calculations of conventional and effective radiative forcings suggest contrail cirrus to make the largest contribution. Here, we present results from general circulation model studies indicating that this ranking might change if contrail cirrus and CO2 emissions are determined from coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations to directly calculate the surface temperature change. A set of simulations with fixed sea-surface temperature to derive the conventional and effective radiative forcings and a second set of interactive ocean simulations were performed for contrail cirrus and CO2. Resulting climate sensitivity parameters of both forcers indicate an exceptionally low efficacy for contrail cirrus to induce the Earth's surface warming. If combined with recent radiative forcing best estimates for air traffic, the climate impact - in terms of global equilibrium surface temperature change - turns out to be larger for aviation CO2 emissions than for contrail cirrus. An extensive feedback analysis allows to trace the causes of the remarkably small efficacy of contrail cirrus back to their physical origin. For both rapid radiative adjustments and slow feedbacks, the natural cloud feedback is found to act quite differently (even in sign) for contrail cirrus and CO2. Together with contributions from a deviating lapse rate feedback it forms the main reason for the low contrail cirrus efficacy.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/196064/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
Title:Climate impact of Contrail Cirrus: From conventional and Effective Radiative Forcings to Surface Temperature Change
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Bickel, MariusDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7872-3706UNSPECIFIED
Ponater, MichaelDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9771-4733UNSPECIFIED
Burkhardt, UlrikeDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0742-7176UNSPECIFIED
Righi, MattiaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3827-5950UNSPECIFIED
Hendricks, JohannesDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Jöckel, PatrickDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8964-1394UNSPECIFIED
Bock, LisaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7058-5938UNSPECIFIED
Date:14 July 2023
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:contrail cirrus, radiative forcing, surface temperature change
Event Title:IUGG 2023
Event Location:Berlin, Deutschland
Event Type:international Conference
Event Start Date:11 July 2023
Event End Date:20 July 2023
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AI - Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Model Evaluation and Analysis
Deposited By: Bickel, Marius
Deposited On:18 Jul 2023 07:44
Last Modified:24 Apr 2024 20:56

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