Transitioning to shared electric automated mobility: The need for a transport policy shock

Abstract

Public and private organizations alike promote shared electric automated vehicles (AVs) as the solution to the sustainable transition of private internal combustion engine-based automobility. We use the multi-level perspective of technological transition as a starting point for developing a conceptual model that describes potential transition paths toward private and shared electric automated automobility. After reviewing relevant literature underpinning this model, we conclude that privately-owned rather than shared (particularly pooled) electric AVs will be the most likely transition, significantly limiting the socio-economic benefits of the so-called three revolutions of automobility (electric-shared-automated). A transport policy shock that would put pressure on the automobility regime (e.g. significant political and ideological shifts in favor of collective over individual mobility) might still make a transition to a shared mobility regime possible.