Vehicle electrification in informal transport

Abstract

The transport sector is one of the largest emitters and fastest-growing source of GHG emissions. Hence, decarbonizing transport is needed to mitigate anthropogenic climate change and meet the 1.5° Celsius target of the Paris Agreement. A focus lies on urban areas in the Global South, where high population growth and urbanization rates fuel transport demand. While governments and transport agencies in many developing countries have started to electrify public transport fleets (e.g. rail and buses), the ubiquitous informal transport sector is a roadblock towards a clean energy transition. Here, the unique constellation of self-employed transport workers operating small-size, privately-owned vehicles (e.g. three-wheelers and minibuses) implies that individuals are the main agents of change. In this context, we assess the adoption of a new technology from a socio-economic perspective by modeling three-wheeler drivers’ interest to switch to electric vehicles (EVs). We use stated-preference data (N=152) collected in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Our results show that: (i) the vast majority of drivers (82.2 %) are interested in transitioning to EVs; (ii) anticipated cost savings increase interest in EVs; (iii) the financing and/or ownership of the vehicle and the availability of guarded night parking are relevant adoption factors; and, (iv) most of the interested drivers are organized in driver unions that are typical for informal transport markets. We conclude that to foster a clean energy transition, policymakers should better communicate the financial benefits of operating EVs, while at the same time incentivize their purchase (e.g., through subsidies, regulatory privileges, or financing models) and provide charging infrastructure at parking hotspots. In addition, driver unions should be included in the transition. In fragmented operator landscapes, they represent powerful levers to drive change and upscale the use of EVs.