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The contribution of transport emissions on ozone and methane lifetime in 2015 and 2050 in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

Mertens, Mariano and Hendricks, Johannes and Righi, Mattia and Grewe, Volker and Brinkop, Sabine and Jöckel, Patrick and Matthes, Sigrun and Thor, Robin and Rieger, Vanessa (2022) The contribution of transport emissions on ozone and methane lifetime in 2015 and 2050 in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). TAC-5 Conference 2022, Bad Aibling.

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Abstract

The transport sector, i.e. land transport, shipping and aviation, is an important source of emissions of NOx and further contributes to emissions of CO and VOCs. These components act as precursors for the formation of tropospheric ozone and impact the lifetime of methane by affecting the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere. Both of these effects in turn have an impact on climate. However, only a few self-consistent quantifications of the contribution of all transport modes on ozone and the effects on methane lifetime exist. Often, only specific transport modes are considered or different methods/different emission data sets are applied. Therefore, we analyze the contribution of emissions from all transport modes for 2015 and for three different projections for 2050 in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) emissions within the DLR project TraK. For the first time, we apply a source attribution method (tagging) to attribute the transport emissions to ozone and OH, and thus to methane lifetime. For the present study, the chemistry-climate model EMAC has been used in in the T42L90MA resolution (approx. 2.8 by 2.8° in latitude and longitude with 90 vertical hybrid pressure levels up to 0.01 hPa). Four simulations for the period 07/2012-12/2017 have been performed with different inputs for emissions of short-lived components – one simulation with emissions for 2015 and three simulations with emissions for 2050, using the SSP2-4.5, SSP1-1.9 and SSP3-7.0 pathway, respectively. Emissions of long-lived species (e.g. CH4) were kept constant in all simulations. In addition, dynamics and chemistry have been decoupled, allowing for the same dynamics in all simulations. Stratospheric adjusted ozone radiative forcing (RF) of the ozone attributed to specific emission sectors have been calculated during runtime with additional calls of the radiation scheme. Our results show that land transport emissions are the transport mode with the largest contribution to ozone (ground-level ozone and ozone RF) as well as the largest effect on the methane lifetime in 2015 and for all emission pathways in 2050. While the shipping sector is the second largest contributor to ozone RF and also has the second largest effect on methane lifetime in 2015, the aviation sector gets more important in all pathways for 2050, overtaking the shipping sector. In the SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 emission pathways, transport emissions contribute significantly to ozone and also have the largest effect on methane lifetime. Only the SSP1-1.9 emission pathway transport emissions are reduced strongly, reducing climate effects due to ozone changes of the methane lifetime. This highlights the urgent need for more stringent emission reduction policies in the transport sector.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/190758/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
Title:The contribution of transport emissions on ozone and methane lifetime in 2015 and 2050 in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Mertens, MarianoDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3549-6889
Hendricks, JohannesDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Righi, MattiaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3827-5950
Grewe, VolkerDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8012-6783
Brinkop, SabineDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3167-203X
Jöckel, PatrickDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8964-1394
Matthes, SigrunDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5114-2418
Thor, RobinDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Rieger, VanessaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7328-5102
Date:24 November 2022
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:Verkehr Klima Straßenverkehr land transport emissions
Event Title:TAC-5 Conference 2022
Event Location:Bad Aibling
Event Type:international Conference
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Transport und Klima
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Mertens, Mariano
Deposited On:24 Nov 2022 13:06
Last Modified:24 Nov 2022 13:06

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