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How can numerical weather prediction support the ATM activity during severe weather events?

Parodi, Antonio and Mazzarella, Vincenzo and Milelli, Massimo and Lagasio, Martina and Poletti, Laura and Biondi, Riccardo and Realini, Eugenio and Federico, Stefano and Torcasio, Claudia and Kerschbaum, Markus and Llasat, Maria del Carmen and Rigo, Tomeu and Esbri, Laura and Temme, Marco-Michael and Gluchshenko, Olga and Temme, Annette and Nöhren, Lennard (2022) How can numerical weather prediction support the ATM activity during severe weather events? In: living planet symposium (lps22). living planet symposium (lps22), 2022-05-23 - 2022-05-27, Bonn, Germany.

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Abstract

Climate change is intensifying the water cycle, bringing more intense precipitation and flooding in some regions, as well as longer and stronger droughts in others. The number of short-term and highly localized phenomena, such as thunderstorms, hailstorms, wind gusts or tornadoes, is expected to grow in the coming years, with important repercussions in air traffic management activities (ATM). One of the challenges for meteorologists is to improve the location and timing of such events that develop on small spatial and temporal scales. In this regard, the H2020 Satellite-borne and IN-situ Observations to Predict The Initiation of Convection for ATM (SINOPTICA) project aims to demonstrate that numerical weather forecasts with high spatial and temporal resolution, benefiting from the assimilation of radar data, in situ weather stations, GNSS and lightning data, could improve the prediction of severe weather events for the benefit of air traffic control (ATC) and air traffic management (ATM). As part of the project, three severe weather events were identified on the Italian territory which resulted in the closure of the airport with heavy delays on arrivals and departures as well as numerous diversions. The data of the numerical simulations, carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the 3D-VAR assimilation technique, will be integrated into air traffic control and management systems (Arrival Manager) in order to generate and optimize 4D trajectories avoiding areas affected by adverse phenomena with the objectives of increasing flight safety and predictability and reducing controllers' workload. In addition to the numerical simulations, a nowcasting technique called PHAse- diffusion model for STochastic nowcasting (PhaSt) has been investigated to further improve ATC supporting systems during severe weather. This work presents the results of the WRF and PhaSt experiments, for the Milan Malpensa case study of 11 May 2019, demonstrating that it is possible to improve the prediction of such events in line with expectations and ATM needs.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/190737/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:How can numerical weather prediction support the ATM activity during severe weather events?
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Parodi, AntonioCIMA Research Foundation, Savona, ItalyUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Mazzarella, VincenzoCIMA Research Foundation, Savona, ItalyUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Milelli, MassimoCIMA Research Foundation, Savona, ItalyUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Lagasio, MartinaCIMA Research Foundation, Savona, ItalyUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Poletti, LauraCIMA Research Foundation, Savona, ItalyUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Biondi, RiccardoGeosciences Department, University of Padua, Padua, ItalyUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Realini, EugenioGEOMATICS RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT SRL, Como, ItalyUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Federico, StefanoIstituto di Scienze dell’Atmosfera e del Clima - C.N.R. (ISAC)UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Torcasio, ClaudiaIstituto di Scienze dell’Atmosfera e del Clima - C.N.R. (ISAC)UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kerschbaum, MarkusAustro Control GmbH, Wien, AustriaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Llasat, Maria del CarmenDepartment of Applied Physics, Universitat de Barcelona, SpainUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Rigo, TomeuMeteorological Service of Catalonia, SpainUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Esbri, LauraDepartment of Applied Physics, Universitat de Barcelona, SpainUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Temme, Marco-MichaelUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2446-5489UNSPECIFIED
Gluchshenko, OlgaUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2189-1319UNSPECIFIED
Temme, AnnetteUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8245-3473UNSPECIFIED
Nöhren, LennardUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:23 May 2022
Journal or Publication Title:living planet symposium (lps22)
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:ATC; meteorology; GNSS; weather forecast
Event Title:living planet symposium (lps22)
Event Location:Bonn, Germany
Event Type:international Conference
Event Start Date:23 May 2022
Event End Date:27 May 2022
Organizer:esa
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AI - Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment
Location: Braunschweig
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Flight Guidance > Controller Assistance
Institute of Flight Guidance > Pilot Assistance
Deposited By: Temme, Dr.rer.nat. Marco-Michael
Deposited On:24 Nov 2022 10:05
Last Modified:24 Apr 2024 20:51

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