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More Bucks for the Bang: New Space Solutions, Impact Tourism and one Unique Science & Engineering Opportunity at T-6 Months and Counting

Grundmann, Jan Thimo and Borella, Laura and Ceriotti, Matteo and Chand, Suditi and Cordero, Federico and Dachwald, Bernd and Fexer, Sebastian and Fuglesang, Christer and Garcia de Herreros Miciano, María and Grimm, Christian and Hendrikse, Jeffrey and Hercik, David and Herique, Alain and Hillebrandt, Martin and Ho, Tra-Mi and Kesseler, Lars and Laabs, M. and Lange, Caroline and Lange, Michael and Lichtenheldt, Roy and Nyman, Erik Lindblad and McInnes, Colin and Moore, Iain and Peloni, Alessandro and Plettemeier, Dirk and Quantius, Dominik and Ricci, Leonardo and Seefeldt, Patric and Tibert, Gunnar and Venditti, Flaviane C. F. and Vergaaij, Merel and Vial, Simon and Viavattene, Giulia and Virkki, Anne K. and Wu, Jingyang and Zander, Martin E. (2021) More Bucks for the Bang: New Space Solutions, Impact Tourism and one Unique Science & Engineering Opportunity at T-6 Months and Counting. 7th IAA Planetary Defense Conference – PDC 2021, 26.-30.04.2021, Wien, Österreich (virtuell).

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Official URL: https://iaaspace.org/event/7th-iaa-planetary-defense-conference-2021/

Abstract

For now, the Planetary Defense Conference Exercise 2021's incoming fictitious(!) asteroid, 2021 PDC, seems headed for impact on October 20th, 2021, exactly 6 months after its discovery. Today (April 26th, 2021), the impact probability is 5%, in a steep rise from 1 in 2500 upon discovery six days ago. We all know how these things end. Or do we? Unless somebody kicked off another headline-grabbing media scare or wants to keep civil defense very idle very soon, chances are that it will hit (note: this is an exercise!). Taking stock, it is barely 6 months to impact, a steadily rising likelihood that it will actually happen, and a huge uncertainty of possible impact energies: First estimates range from 1.2 MtTNT to 13 GtTNT, and this is not even the worst-worst case: a 700 m diameter massive NiFe asteroid (covered by a thin veneer of Ryugu-black rubble to match size and brightness) would come in at 70 GtTNT. In down to Earth terms, this could be all between smashing fireworks over some remote area of the globe and a 7.5 km crater downtown somewhere. Considering the deliberate and sedate ways of development of interplanetary missions it seems we can only stand and stare until we know well enough where to tell people to pack up all that can be moved at all and save themselves. But then, it could just as well be a smaller bright rock. The best estimate is 120 m diameter from optical observation alone, by 13% standard albedo. NASA's upcoming DART mission to binary asteroid (65803) Didymos is designed to hit such a small target, its moonlet Dimorphos. The Deep Impact mission's impactor in 2005 successfully guided itself to the brightest spot on comet 9P/Tempel 1, a relatively small feature on the 6 km nucleus. And 'space' has changed: By the end of this decade, one satellite communication network plans to have launched over 11000 satellites at a pace of 60 per launch every other week. This level of series production is comparable in numbers to the most prolific commercial airliners. Launch vehicle production has not simply increased correspondingly - they can be reused, although in a trade for performance. Optical and radio astronomy as well as planetary radar have made great strides in the past decade, and so has the design and production capability for everyday 'high-tech' products. 60 years ago, spaceflight was invented from scratch within two years, and there are recent examples of fastpaced space projects as well as a drive towards 'responsive space'. It seems it is not quite yet time to abandon all hope. We present what could be done and what is too close to call once thinking is shoved out of the box by a clear and present danger, to show where a little more preparedness or routine would come in handy - or become decisive. And if we fail, let's stand and stare safely and well instrumented anywhere on Earth together in the greatest adventure of science.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/185741/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
Title:More Bucks for the Bang: New Space Solutions, Impact Tourism and one Unique Science & Engineering Opportunity at T-6 Months and Counting
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Grundmann, Jan ThimoJan.Grundmann (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8809-0981
Borella, Lauraconsultant to DLR Institute of Space SystemsUNSPECIFIED
Ceriotti, MatteoUniversity of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdomhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6819-7178
Chand, SuditiSuditi.Chand (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Cordero, FedericoTelespazio VEGA DeutschlandUNSPECIFIED
Dachwald, BerndFH Aachenhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8765-8339
Fexer, SebastianSebastian.Fexer (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Fuglesang, ChristerEuropean Space Agency, ESA, European Astronaut Center, EAC, Crew Medical Support Office & Astronaut Division, PO Box 906096, 51127 Cologne, Germany and Royal Institute of Technology, KTH, Stockholm, SwedenUNSPECIFIED
Garcia de Herreros Miciano, MaríaKTH Royal Institute of Technology, SE-100 44 Stockholm, SwedenUNSPECIFIED
Grimm, ChristianChristian.Grimm (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Hendrikse, JeffreyAirbus Defense and Space (former Astrium GmbH.), Friedrichshafen, GermanyUNSPECIFIED
Hercik, DavidInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech RepublicUNSPECIFIED
Herique, AlainUniv. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IPAG, F-38000 Grenoble, FranceUNSPECIFIED
Hillebrandt, MartinMartin.Hillebrandt (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Ho, Tra-MiTra-Mi.Ho (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Kesseler, LarsLevity Space SystemsUNSPECIFIED
Laabs, M.TU DresdenUNSPECIFIED
Lange, CarolineCaroline.Lange (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1709-3667
Lange, MichaelM.Lange (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0095-3605
Lichtenheldt, RoyRoy.Lichtenheldt (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2539-4910
Nyman, Erik LindbladKTH Royal Institute of Technology, SE-100 44 Stockholm, SwedenUNSPECIFIED
McInnes, ColinUniversity of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United KingdomUNSPECIFIED
Moore, IainUniversity of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland, United KingdomUNSPECIFIED
Peloni, Alessandroconsultant to DLR Institute of Space Systemshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1903-9816
Plettemeier, DirkTechnische Universität Dresden, Professur für Hochfrequenztechnik, Würzburger Str. 35, D-01187 Dresden, GermanyUNSPECIFIED
Quantius, DominikDominik.Quantius (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Ricci, LeonardoKTH Royal Institute of Technology, SE-100 44 Stockholm, SwedenUNSPECIFIED
Seefeldt, PatricPatric.Seefeldt (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2067-9458
Tibert, GunnarKTH Royal Institute of Technology, SE-100 44 Stockholm, SwedenUNSPECIFIED
Venditti, Flaviane C. F.Arecibo Observatory, HC3 Box 53995, Arecibo, PR 00612, USAUNSPECIFIED
Vergaaij, MerelUniversity of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland, United KingdomUNSPECIFIED
Vial, SimonKTH Royal Institute of Technology, SE-100 44 Stockholm, SwedenUNSPECIFIED
Viavattene, GiuliaUniversity of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland, United KingdomUNSPECIFIED
Virkki, Anne K.Arecibo Observatory, HC3 Box 53995, Arecibo, PR 00612, USAUNSPECIFIED
Wu, JingyangKTH Royal Institute of Technology, SE-100 44 Stockholm, SwedenUNSPECIFIED
Zander, Martin E.Martin.Zander (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5972-2938
Date:26 April 2021
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:Near-Earth Object, hazardous asteroid mitigation, new space, responsive space, disaster preparedness
Event Title:7th IAA Planetary Defense Conference – PDC 2021
Event Location:Wien, Österreich (virtuell)
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:26.-30.04.2021
Organizer:IAA
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Space System Technology
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R SY - Space System Technology
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - GoSolAr (Gossamer Solar Array), R - Requirements and Verification Interchange in MBSE, R - Project Mascot (Bus), R - Projekt Mascot (Rob.), R - Project MASCOT - Science
Location: Bremen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Space Systems > Systems Engineering and Project Office
Institute of Space Systems > Mechanic and Thermal Systems
Institute of Space Systems > Land and Exploration Technology
Institute of Composite Structures and Adaptive Systems > Functional Lightweight Structures
Institute of Robotics and Mechatronics (since 2013) > Mechatronic Systems
Institute of Space Systems > System Analysis Space Segment
Deposited By: Grundmann, Jan Thimo
Deposited On:21 Mar 2022 10:46
Last Modified:21 Mar 2022 10:46

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