Data assimilation and nowcasting for air traffic management purposes

Abstract

One of the main challenges for meteorologists is to improve the prediction of severe weather events that develop on small spatial and temporal scales and that have important repercussions in air traffic management activities (ATM). In this regard, the H2020 project "Satellite-borne and IN-situ Observations to Predict The Initiation of Convection for ATM" (SINOPTICA) aims to demonstrate that numerical weather prediction with high spatial and temporal resolution, benefiting from the assimilation of non-conventional observations, GNSS, weather radar, and lightning data, could improve the prediction of severe weather events for the benefit of air traffic control (ATC) and air traffic management (ATM) in the vicinity of airports. In addition to the numerical simulations, a nowcasting technique called PHAse- diffusion model for STochastic nowcasting (PHAST) has been developed to predict the highly localized convective events triggering in the vicinity of airports and to further support the ATM activities. As part of the project, three severe weather events were identified on the Italian territory which caused the closure of some airport, huge delays on arrivals and departures and numerous diversions. The data of the numerical simulations, carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and nowcasting technique, performed with PHAST, were integrated into the Arrival Manager 4D-CARMA (4-Dimensional Cooperative Arrival Manager), an adaptive air traffic sequencing and management system for controllers. As part of the project, 4D-CARMA was extended to now generate and optimize 4D trajectories avoiding areas affected by adverse phenomena with the objectives of increasing flight safety and predictability and, under certain circumstances, reducing controllers' and pilots' workload. This work presents the first outcomes of the SINOPTICA project, demonstrating that it is possible to improve the prediction of the above-mentioned events in line with expectations and ATM needs.