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On the Impact of Uncertainty on Quantitative Security Risk Assessment

Lichte, Daniel and Termin, Thomas and Wolf, Kai-Dietrich (2020) On the Impact of Uncertainty on Quantitative Security Risk Assessment. In: 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM15 2020, pp. 4938-4945. Research Publishing Services. Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, Venedig, Italien. ISBN 978-981148593-0.

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Official URL: http://rpsonline.com.sg/proceedings/9789811485930/html/4262.xml

Abstract

The importance of (physical) security nowadays gets more and more acknowledged in society as well as in the scientific community. In the light of increasing terrorist threat levels, assessments of the security of critical infrastructures are conducted in practice and researchers propose new approaches. While practical security risk assessments (SRA) use mostly qualitative methods, most of the lately proposed approaches are based on quantitative metrics. Rare evidence of actual attacks qualitative and quantitative approaches suffers the fundamental problem of inherent uncertainties regarding occurring threats and capabilities of security measures. This paper focuses on the impact of considering uncertainties in quantitative SRA, especially regarding the robustness of the system against resulting input parameter variance. The impact is analyzed by applying quantitative vulnerability assessment introduced by Lichte and Wolf (2017) as part of the SRA process to an airport structure. Two differing configuration are initially assessed. Additionally, an adapted Variance Based Sensitivity Analysis for first and total order sensitivities is conducted. Finally, a hybrid configuration based on the findings of the prior steps is realized in the sixth step. The results substantiate the assumption regarding the differing influence of the models input parameters. Hence, the approach of Factor Fixing can help in systematically identifying the most influencing factors of the uncertainty considering vulnerability model.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/147240/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:On the Impact of Uncertainty on Quantitative Security Risk Assessment
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Lichte, DanielDaniel.Lichte (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3314-5823
Termin, ThomasBergische Universität WuppertalUNSPECIFIED
Wolf, Kai-DietrichBergische Universität WuppertalUNSPECIFIED
Date:2020
Journal or Publication Title:30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM15 2020
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:No
Page Range:pp. 4938-4945
Publisher:Research Publishing Services
ISBN:978-981148593-0
Status:Published
Keywords:Security, Uncertainty, Security Risk Assessment, Vulnerability, Critical Infrastructures, CIP, Variance Based Sensitivity Analysis
Event Title:Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference
Event Location:Venedig, Italien
Event Type:international Conference
HGF - Research field:other
HGF - Program:other
HGF - Program Themes:other
DLR - Research area:no assignment
DLR - Program:no assignment
DLR - Research theme (Project):no assignment
Location: Rhein-Sieg-Kreis
Institutes and Institutions:Institute for the Protection of Terrestrial Infrastructures > Resilience – Models and Methods
Deposited By: Lichte, Dr.-Ing. Daniel
Deposited On:13 Dec 2021 13:20
Last Modified:13 Dec 2021 13:20

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