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On the Impact of Uncertainty on Quantitative Security Risk Assessment

Lichte, Daniel und Termin, Thomas und Wolf, Kai-Dietrich (2020) On the Impact of Uncertainty on Quantitative Security Risk Assessment. In: 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM15 2020, Seiten 4938-4945. Research Publishing Services. Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, 2020-11-01 - 2020-11-05, Venedig, Italien. doi: 10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_4262-cd. ISBN 978-981148593-0.

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Offizielle URL: http://rpsonline.com.sg/proceedings/9789811485930/html/4262.xml

Kurzfassung

The importance of (physical) security nowadays gets more and more acknowledged in society as well as in the scientific community. In the light of increasing terrorist threat levels, assessments of the security of critical infrastructures are conducted in practice and researchers propose new approaches. While practical security risk assessments (SRA) use mostly qualitative methods, most of the lately proposed approaches are based on quantitative metrics. Rare evidence of actual attacks qualitative and quantitative approaches suffers the fundamental problem of inherent uncertainties regarding occurring threats and capabilities of security measures. This paper focuses on the impact of considering uncertainties in quantitative SRA, especially regarding the robustness of the system against resulting input parameter variance. The impact is analyzed by applying quantitative vulnerability assessment introduced by Lichte and Wolf (2017) as part of the SRA process to an airport structure. Two differing configuration are initially assessed. Additionally, an adapted Variance Based Sensitivity Analysis for first and total order sensitivities is conducted. Finally, a hybrid configuration based on the findings of the prior steps is realized in the sixth step. The results substantiate the assumption regarding the differing influence of the models input parameters. Hence, the approach of Factor Fixing can help in systematically identifying the most influencing factors of the uncertainty considering vulnerability model.

elib-URL des Eintrags:https://elib.dlr.de/147240/
Dokumentart:Konferenzbeitrag (Vortrag)
Titel:On the Impact of Uncertainty on Quantitative Security Risk Assessment
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iDORCID Put Code
Lichte, DanielDaniel.Lichte (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3314-5823NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Termin, ThomasBergische Universität WuppertalNICHT SPEZIFIZIERTNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Wolf, Kai-DietrichBergische Universität WuppertalNICHT SPEZIFIZIERTNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:2020
Erschienen in:30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM15 2020
Referierte Publikation:Ja
Open Access:Ja
Gold Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Nein
DOI:10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_4262-cd
Seitenbereich:Seiten 4938-4945
Verlag:Research Publishing Services
ISBN:978-981148593-0
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:Security, Uncertainty, Security Risk Assessment, Vulnerability, Critical Infrastructures, CIP, Variance Based Sensitivity Analysis
Veranstaltungstitel:Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference
Veranstaltungsort:Venedig, Italien
Veranstaltungsart:internationale Konferenz
Veranstaltungsbeginn:1 November 2020
Veranstaltungsende:5 November 2020
HGF - Forschungsbereich:keine Zuordnung
HGF - Programm:keine Zuordnung
HGF - Programmthema:keine Zuordnung
DLR - Schwerpunkt:keine Zuordnung
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:keine Zuordnung
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):keine Zuordnung
Standort: Rhein-Sieg-Kreis
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für den Schutz terrestrischer Infrastrukturen > Resilienz- und Risikomethodik
Hinterlegt von: Lichte, Dr.-Ing. Daniel
Hinterlegt am:13 Dez 2021 13:20
Letzte Änderung:11 Jun 2024 13:59

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