Analysis of how the spatial and temporal patterns of fire and their bioclimatic and anthropogenic drivers vary across the Amazon rainforest in El Niño and non-El Niño years

Abstract

In the past two decades, Amazon rainforest countries (Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru and Venezuela) have experienced a substantial increase in fire frequency due to the changes in the patterns of different anthropogenic and climatic drivers. This study examines how both fire dynamics and bioclimatic factors varied based on the season (wet season and dry season) El Niño years across the different countries and ecosystems within the Amazon rainforest. Data from publicly available databases on forest fires (Global Fire Atlas) and bioclimatic, topographic and anthropogenic variables were employed in the analysis. Linear mixed-effect models discovered that year type (El Niño vs. non-El Niño), seasonality (dry vs. wet), land cover and forest strata (in terms of canopy cover and intactness) and their interactions varied across the Amazonian countries (and the different ecosystems) under consideration. A machine learning model, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS), was utilized to determine the relative importance of climatic, topographic, forest structure and human modification variables on fire dynamics across wet and dry seasons, both in El Niño and non-El Niño years. The findings of this study make clear that declining precipitation and increased temperatures have strong impact on fire dynamics (size, duration, expansion and speed) for El Niño years. El Niño years also saw greater fire sizes and speeds as compared to non-El Niño years. Dense and relatively undisturbed forests were found to have the lowest fire activity and increased human impact on a landscape was associated with exacerbated fire dynamics, especially in the El Niño years. Additionally, the presence of grass-dominated ecosystems such as grasslands also acted as a driver of fire in both El Niño and non-El Niño years. Hence, from a conservation perspective, increased interventions during the El Niño periods should be considered.