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Using Probability Distributions for Projecting Changes in Travel Behavior

Radke, Andreas and Heinrichs, Matthias (2021) Using Probability Distributions for Projecting Changes in Travel Behavior. Sustainability, 13 (18), p. 10101. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI). doi: 10.3390/su131810101. ISSN 2071-1050.

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Official URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/18/10101

Abstract

Mobility is a must for human life on this planet, because important activities like working or shopping cannot be done from home for everyone. Present modes of transports contributes significantly to green house gas emissions while the efforts to reduce these emissions can be improved in many countries. Pathways to a more sustainable form of mobility can be modelled using travel demand models to aid decision makers. However, to project human behavior into the future one should analyze the changes in the past to understand the drivers in mobility change. Mobility surveys provide sets of activity diaries, which show changes in travel behavior over time. Those activity diaries are one of the inputs in activity-based demand generation models like travel activity pattern simulation (TAPAS). This paper shows a method of using probability distributions between person and diary groups. It offers an opportunity for an increased heterogeneity in travel behavior without sacrificing too much accuracy. Additionally it will present the use case of temporal back- and forecasting of changes in activity choices of existing mobility survey data. The results show the possibilities within this approach together with its limits and pitfalls.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/144326/
Document Type:Article
Title:Using Probability Distributions for Projecting Changes in Travel Behavior
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Radke, AndreasAndreas.Radke (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0898-5532
Heinrichs, MatthiasMatthias.Heinrichs (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0175-2787
Date:9 September 2021
Journal or Publication Title:Sustainability
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:13
DOI :10.3390/su131810101
Page Range:p. 10101
Publisher:Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
ISSN:2071-1050
Status:Published
Keywords:activity-based travel behavior; diary generation; TAPAS; travel demand generation; probability distribution
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - UrMo Digital, V - Zukunftsbilder eines automatisierten integrierten Verkehrssystems
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transport Research > Mobility and Urban Development
Deposited By: Radke, Andreas
Deposited On:19 Oct 2021 14:12
Last Modified:19 Oct 2021 14:12

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