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How Would We Cycle Today If We Had the Weather of Tomorrow? An Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Bicycle Traffic

Galich, Anton and Nieland, Simon and Lenz, Barbara and Blechschmidt, Jan (2021) How Would We Cycle Today If We Had the Weather of Tomorrow? An Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Bicycle Traffic. Sustainability, 13 (18). Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI). doi: 10.3390/su131810254. ISSN 2071-1050.

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Official URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/18/10254


Bicycle usage is significantly affected by weather conditions. Climate change is, therefore, expected to have an impact on the volume of bicycle traffic, which is an important factor in the planning and design of bicycle infrastructures. To predict bicycle traffic in a changed climate in the city of Berlin, this paper compares a traditional statistical approach to three machine learning models. For this purpose, a cross-validation procedure is developed that evaluates model performance on the basis of prediction accuracy. XGBoost showed the best performance and is used for the prediction of bicycle counts. Our results indicate that we can expect an overall annual increase in bicycle traffic of 1–4% in the city of Berlin due to the changes in local weather conditions caused by global climate change. The biggest changes are expected to occur in the winter season with increases of 11–14% due to rising temperatures and only slight increases in precipitation.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/143972/
Document Type:Article
Additional Information:Die Publikation ist im Rahmen des HI-CAM Projektes von der Helmholtz Gemeinschaft entstanden.
Title:How Would We Cycle Today If We Had the Weather of Tomorrow? An Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Bicycle Traffic
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Galich, AntonUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6556-6705UNSPECIFIED
Nieland, SimonUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1116-0646UNSPECIFIED
Date:14 September 2021
Journal or Publication Title:Sustainability
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Publisher:Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Keywords:bicycle traffic; time series; weather; climate change; machine learning
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Transport und Klima (old)
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transport Research > Passenger Transport
Institute of Transport Research > Mobility and Urban Development
Institute of Transport Research > Commercial Transport
Institute of Transport Research > Leitungsbereich VF
Deposited By: Galich, Dr. Anton
Deposited On:05 Oct 2021 10:56
Last Modified:05 Oct 2021 10:56

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