Galich, Anton und Nieland, Simon und Lenz, Barbara und Blechschmidt, Jan (2021) How Would We Cycle Today If We Had the Weather of Tomorrow? An Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Bicycle Traffic. Sustainability, 13 (18). Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI). doi: 10.3390/su131810254. ISSN 2071-1050.
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Offizielle URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/18/10254
Kurzfassung
Bicycle usage is significantly affected by weather conditions. Climate change is, therefore, expected to have an impact on the volume of bicycle traffic, which is an important factor in the planning and design of bicycle infrastructures. To predict bicycle traffic in a changed climate in the city of Berlin, this paper compares a traditional statistical approach to three machine learning models. For this purpose, a cross-validation procedure is developed that evaluates model performance on the basis of prediction accuracy. XGBoost showed the best performance and is used for the prediction of bicycle counts. Our results indicate that we can expect an overall annual increase in bicycle traffic of 1–4% in the city of Berlin due to the changes in local weather conditions caused by global climate change. The biggest changes are expected to occur in the winter season with increases of 11–14% due to rising temperatures and only slight increases in precipitation.
elib-URL des Eintrags: | https://elib.dlr.de/143972/ | ||||||||||
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Dokumentart: | Zeitschriftenbeitrag | ||||||||||
Zusätzliche Informationen: | Die Publikation ist im Rahmen des HI-CAM Projektes von der Helmholtz Gemeinschaft entstanden. | ||||||||||
Titel: | How Would We Cycle Today If We Had the Weather of Tomorrow? An Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Bicycle Traffic | ||||||||||
Autoren: |
*DLR corresponding author | ||||||||||
Datum: | 14 September 2021 | ||||||||||
Erschienen in: | Sustainability | ||||||||||
Open Access: | Ja | ||||||||||
In SCOPUS: | Ja | ||||||||||
In ISI Web of Science: | Ja | ||||||||||
Band: | 13 | ||||||||||
DOI: | 10.3390/su131810254 | ||||||||||
Verlag: | Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) | ||||||||||
ISSN: | 2071-1050 | ||||||||||
Stichwörter: | bicycle traffic; time series; weather; climate change; machine learning | ||||||||||
DLR - Schwerpunkt: | Verkehr | ||||||||||
DLR - Forschungsgebiet: | V VS - Verkehrssystem | ||||||||||
Standort: | Berlin-Adlershof | ||||||||||
Institute & Einrichtungen: | Institut für Verkehrsforschung > Personenverkehr Institut für Verkehrsforschung > Mobilität und urbane Entwicklung Institut für Verkehrsforschung > Wirtschaftsverkehr Institut für Verkehrsforschung > Leitungsbereich VF |
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