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Past and Future Climate Variability Uncertainties in the Global Carbon Budget Using the MPI Grand Ensemble

Loughran, Tammas F. and Boysen, Lena and Bastos, Ana and Hartung, Kerstin and Havermann, Felix and Li, Hongmei and Nabel, Julia E. M. S. and Obermeier, Wolfgang A. and Pongratz, Julia (2021) Past and Future Climate Variability Uncertainties in the Global Carbon Budget Using the MPI Grand Ensemble. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 35 (8), pp. 1-17. Wiley-Blackwell. doi: 10.1029/2021GB007019. ISSN 0886-6236.

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Official URL: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021GB007019

Abstract

Quantifying the anthropogenic fluxes of CO2 is important to understand the evolution of carbon sink capacities, on which the required strength of our mitigation efforts directly depends. For the historical period, the global carbon budget (GCB) can be compiled from observations and model simulations as is done annually in the Global Carbon Project's (GCP) carbon budgets. However, the historical budget only considers a single realization of the Earth system and cannot account for internal climate variability. Understanding the distribution of internal climate variability is critical for predicting the future carbon budget terms and uncertainties. We present here a decomposition of the GCB for the historical period and the RCP4.5 scenario using single-model large ensemble simulations from the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) to capture internal variability. We calculate uncertainty ranges for the natural sinks and anthropogenic emissions that arise from internal climate variability, and by using this distribution, we investigate the likelihood of historical fluxes with respect to plausible climate states. Our results show these likelihoods have substantial fluctuations due to internal variability, which are partially related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We find that the largest internal variability in the MPI-GE stems from the natural land sink and its increasing carbon stocks over time. The allowable fossil fuel emissions consistent with 3 °C warming may be between 9 and 18 Pg C/yr. The MPI-GE is generally consistent with GCP's global budgets with the notable exception of land-use change emissions in recent decades, highlighting that human action is inconsistent with climate mitigation goals.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/143684/
Document Type:Article
Title:Past and Future Climate Variability Uncertainties in the Global Carbon Budget Using the MPI Grand Ensemble
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Loughran, Tammas F.Department of Geography, LMUhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9125-0862
Boysen, LenaMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburghttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6671-4984
Bastos, AnaMax Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jenahttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7368-7806
Hartung, KerstinDLR, IPA and Department of Geography, LMUhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9211-6200
Havermann, FelixDepartment of Geography, LMUhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8849-0195
Li, HongmeiMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburghttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2912-1837
Nabel, Julia E. M. S.Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburghttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8122-5206
Obermeier, Wolfgang A.Department of Geography, LMUhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7094-8011
Pongratz, JuliaDepartment of Geography, LMUhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0372-3960
Date:2021
Journal or Publication Title:Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:35
DOI:10.1029/2021GB007019
Page Range:pp. 1-17
Publisher:Wiley-Blackwell
ISSN:0886-6236
Status:Published
Keywords:carbon, cycle, ensemble, land, uncertainty
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Project MABAK
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Hartung, Kerstin
Deposited On:02 Sep 2021 09:29
Last Modified:02 Sep 2021 09:29

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