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Evaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects

Grewe, Volker and Gangoli, Arvind Rao and Gronstedt, Tomas and Xisto, Carlos and Linke, Florian and Melkert, Joris and Middel, J. and Ohlenforst, Barbara and Blakey, Simon and Christie, Simon and Matthes, Sigrun and Dahlmann, Katrin (2021) Evaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects. Nature Communications, 12. Nature Publishing Group. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-24091-y. ISSN 2041-1723.

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Official URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24091-y

Abstract

Aviation is an important contributor to the global economy, satisfying society’s mobility needs. It contributes to climate change through CO2 and non-CO2 effects, including contrail-cirrus and ozone formation. There is currently significant interest in policies, regulations and research aiming to reduce aviation’s climate impact. Here we model the effect of these measures on global warming and perform a bottom-up analysis of potential technical improvements, challenging the assumptions of the targets for the sector with a number of scenarios up to 2100. We show that although the emissions targets for aviation are in line with the overall goals of the Paris Agreement, there is a high likelihood that the climate impact of aviation will not meet these goals. Our assessment includes feasible technological advancements and the availability of sustainable aviation fuels. This conclusion is robust for several COVID-19 recovery scenarios, including changes in travel behaviour.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/142852/
Document Type:Article
Title:Evaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Grewe, VolkerDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8012-6783
Gangoli, Arvind RaoTU DelftUNSPECIFIED
Gronstedt, TomasChalmers, SEUNSPECIFIED
Xisto, CarlosChalmers, SEUNSPECIFIED
Linke, FlorianFlorian.Linke (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1403-3471
Melkert, JorisFaculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of TechnologyUNSPECIFIED
Middel, J.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Ohlenforst, BarbaraNLRUNSPECIFIED
Blakey, SimonUniversity of Sheffield, UKUNSPECIFIED
Christie, SimonMMUUNSPECIFIED
Matthes, SigrunDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5114-2418
Dahlmann, KatrinDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3198-1713
Date:22 June 2021
Journal or Publication Title:Nature Communications
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:12
DOI :10.1038/s41467-021-24091-y
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
ISSN:2041-1723
Status:Published
Keywords:Cimate impact of aviation, contrails, NOx, scenarios
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AI - Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Air Transport Operations
Deposited By: Grewe, Prof. Dr. Volker
Deposited On:23 Jun 2021 10:16
Last Modified:24 May 2022 23:47

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