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Influence of the El Niño--Southern Oscillation on entry stratospheric water vapor in coupled chemistry--ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models

Garfinkel, Chaim I. and Harari, Ohad and Ziskin Ziv, Siv S. and Rao, Jian and Morgenstern, Olaf and Zeng, Guang and Tilmes, Simone and Kinnison, Doug and O'Connor, Fiona M. and Butchart, Neal and Deushi, Makoto and Jöckel, Patrick and Pozzer, Andrea and Davis, Sean (2021) Influence of the El Niño--Southern Oscillation on entry stratospheric water vapor in coupled chemistry--ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), 21 (5), pp. 3725-3740. Copernicus Publications. doi: 10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021. ISSN 1680-7316.

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Official URL: https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/3725/2021/

Abstract

The connection between the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical troposphere, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the entry of stratospheric water vapor is analyzed in a set of model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project and for Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. While the models agree on the temperature response to ENSO in the tropical troposphere and lower stratosphere, and all models and observations also agree on the zonal structure of the temperature response in the tropical tropopause layer, the only aspect of the entry water vapor response with consensus in both models and observations is that La Niña leads to moistening in winter relative to neutral ENSO. For El Niño and for other seasons, there are significant differences among the models. For example, some models find that the enhanced water vapor for La Niña in the winter of the event reverses in spring and summer, some models find that this moistening persists, and some show a nonlinear response, with both El Niño and La Niña leading to enhanced water vapor in both winter, spring, and summer. A moistening in the spring following El Niño events, the signal focused on in much previous work, is simulated by only half of the models. Focusing on Central Pacific ENSO vs. East Pacific ENSO, or temperatures in the mid-troposphere compared with temperatures near the surface, does not narrow the inter-model discrepancies. Despite this diversity in response, the temperature response near the cold point can explain the response of water vapor when each model is considered separately. While the observational record is too short to fully constrain the response to ENSO, it is clear that most models suffer from biases in the magnitude of the interannual variability of entry water vapor. This bias could be due to biased cold-point temperatures in some models, but others appear to be missing forcing processes that contribute to observed variability near the cold point.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/141313/
Document Type:Article
Title:Influence of the El Niño--Southern Oscillation on entry stratospheric water vapor in coupled chemistry--ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Garfinkel, Chaim I.The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israelhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7258-666X
Harari, OhadThe Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, IsraelUNSPECIFIED
Ziskin Ziv, Siv S.The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israelhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1430-6222
Rao, JianThe Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israelhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5030-0288
Morgenstern, OlafNational Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealandhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9967-9740
Zeng, GuangNational Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealandhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9356-5021
Tilmes, SimoneNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6557-3569
Kinnison, DougNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USAUNSPECIFIED
O'Connor, Fiona M.Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKUNSPECIFIED
Butchart, NealMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKUNSPECIFIED
Deushi, MakotoMeteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0373-3918
Jöckel, PatrickDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8964-1394
Pozzer, AndreaAtmospheric Chemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, 55128 Mainz, Germanyhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2440-6104
Davis, SeanNOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9276-6158
Date:11 March 2021
Journal or Publication Title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:21
DOI :10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021
Page Range:pp. 3725-3740
Publisher:Copernicus Publications
ISSN:1680-7316
Status:Published
Keywords:CCMI, Chemistry Climate Model Initiative, EMAC, MESSy, Modular Earth Submodel System, CMIP6, stratosphere, water vapor, chemistry-climate modelling, El Nino, Southern Oscillation
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Project Climatic relevance of atmospheric tracer gases, aerosols and clouds, R - Atmospheric and climate research
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Jöckel, Dr. Patrick
Deposited On:15 Mar 2021 15:17
Last Modified:15 Mar 2021 15:17

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