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Towards Determining the Contrail Cirrus Efficacy

Ponater, Michael and Bickel, Marius and Bock, Lisa and Burkhardt, Ulrike (2021) Towards Determining the Contrail Cirrus Efficacy. Aerospace, 8 (2), pp. 1-10. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI). doi: 10.3390/aerospace8020042. ISSN 2226-4310.

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Official URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/8/2/42

Abstract

Contrail cirrus has been emphasized as the largest individual component of aircraft climate impact, yet respective assessments have been based mainly on conventional radiative forcing calculations. As demonstrated in previous research work, individual impact components can have different efficacies, i.e., their effectiveness to induce surface temperature changes may vary. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) has been proposed as a superior metric to compare individual impact contributions, as it may, to a considerable extent, include the effect of efficacy differences. Recent climate model simulations have provided a first estimate of contrail cirrus ERF, which turns out to be much smaller, by about 65%, than the conventional radiative forcing of contrail cirrus. The main reason for the reduction is that natural clouds exhibit a substantially lower radiative impact in the presence of contrail cirrus. Hence, the new result suggests a smaller role of contrail cirrus in the context of aviation climate impact (including proposed mitigation measures) than assumed so far. However, any conclusion in this respect should be drawn carefully as long as no direct simulations of the surface temperature response to contrail cirrus are available. Such simulations are needed in order to confirm the power of ERF for assessing contrail cirrus efficacy.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/140843/
Document Type:Article
Title:Towards Determining the Contrail Cirrus Efficacy
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Ponater, MichaelDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9771-4733
Bickel, MariusDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7872-3706
Bock, LisaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7058-5938
Burkhardt, UlrikeDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0742-7176
Date:February 2021
Journal or Publication Title:Aerospace
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:8
DOI :10.3390/aerospace8020042
Page Range:pp. 1-10
Publisher:Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
ISSN:2226-4310
Status:Published
Keywords:contrail cirrus, aviation climate impact, radiative forcing, efficacy
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AI - Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Model Evaluation and Analysis
Deposited By: Ponater, Dr.rer.nat. Michael
Deposited On:08 Feb 2021 08:21
Last Modified:08 Feb 2021 08:21

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