Impact evaluation of the implementation of automated road transport with regard to sustainable transport objectives in cities. Introducing a mixed-method-approach with a stakeholder workshop and a Delphi-survey in European cities

Kurzfassung

The technological development towards automated road transport is fast. It is expected that automated and autonomous vehicles will fundamentally change the mobility of people and goods, the transport system, spatial development and the urban and road design. Among other aspects, it is assumed that vehicle automation will have the potential for new forms of collective transport, a more efficient use as well as a redesign of existing transport infrastructure, higher road safety, etc. But if unchecked, automated road transport developments could also lead to significantly more transport in cities and regions and could encourage sprawled development. Therefore these risks are very relevant for regions and cities and must be appropriately addressed in urban and regional policies as long as automated driving is still in development. With the great uncertainty regarding the design of automated driving and its impact on the cities, there is rather a range of potential developments than a single predetermined path. Public authorities therefore need a broader knowledge of the requirements, needs and expectations of their citizens and companies concerning the future transport system and have to contrast these against the opportunities and risks of automated driving. It should enable the cities to integrate automated road transport into existing and complex urban transport systems in a way that supports rather than thwarts the objectives of sustainable mobility as well as spatial and resource efficiency and to address the challenges in policy frameworks for the future. Our contribution seeks to provide answers to these questions. As automated driving has not become a reality on the streets yet, we applied a qualitative study design which combines an explorative and participatory workshop with relevant experts, citizens and different stakeholders (e.g. public authorities, NGOs, transport operators, etc.). We identify requirements, needs, threats and opportunities concerning automated road transport together with expectations and ideas regarding the build environment (e.g. street design, parking space requirements, etc.). Due to the Corona-pandemic, further workshops in different European countries had to be cancelled. Therefore, a two-round Delphi-survey was implemented to build on the results of the first workshop. Within the Delphi-survey regulatory measures and their effects of autonomous vehicles on the transport system and the urban area are evaluated. Following, resulting scenarios will be developed that combine technological possibilities with the needs of citizens and aspects such as transport services, street design and the urban environment.