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How well can persistent contrails be predicted?

Gierens, Klaus Martin and Matthes, Sigrun and Rohs, S. (2020) How well can persistent contrails be predicted? In: Making Aviation Environmentally Sustainable, 3rd ECATS Conference, Book of Abstracts, Volume 1, June 2020, pp. 174-178. 3rd ECATS Aviation and Climate Conference, 13.-15. Okt. 2020, virtuell. ISBN 978-1-910029-58-9.

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To allow the planning of flights that avoid the formation of strongly warming contrails (so called Big Hits) it is necessary that three things can reliably be predicted from weather forecast data: 1) the formation conditions of contrails (Schmidt-Appleman criterion), 2) the persistence (ice-supersaturation or not) and 3) the expected instantaneous radiative forcing (iRF). In this paper we compare in-situ meteorological data from IAGOS/MOZAIC with and modelling data from meteorological reanalysis ERA 5 and chemistry-climate model EMAC (issues 1 and 2) and use radiation quantities from these models to estimate the iRF. We do this for all seasons. It turns out that contrail formation itself can be robustly predicted by using reanalysis data. The prediction of persistence is also quite reliable but less robust than the prediction of contrail formation. The estimate of optical thickness is of course not better than the estimate of the degree of supersaturation and thus the estimates of longwave, shortwave and net iRF differ substantially. It is clear that the problems originate mainly from the different relative humidities in the two data sources, and there are errors on both the modelling and the measurement sides. Our analysis of these errors and resulting differences can bring us further to the goal of green-flight planning, as atmospheric parameters are key for both assessing and avoiding aviation’s climate impact from contrail formation.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/137051/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:How well can persistent contrails be predicted?
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Gierens, Klaus MartinDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6983-5370
Matthes, SigrunDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5114-2418
Rohs, S.FZ Jülich, JülichUNSPECIFIED
Date:October 2020
Journal or Publication Title:Making Aviation Environmentally Sustainable, 3rd ECATS Conference, Book of Abstracts, Volume 1, June 2020
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Page Range:pp. 174-178
EditorsEmailEditor's ORCID iD
Matthes, SigrunSigrun.Matthes@dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5114-2418
Blum, AnjaAnja.Blum@dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Keywords:contrails, climate impact, prediction, Big Hits
Event Title:3rd ECATS Aviation and Climate Conference
Event Location:virtuell
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:13.-15. Okt. 2020
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Atmospheric and climate research
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Gierens, Dr.rer.nat. Klaus Martin
Deposited On:02 Nov 2020 11:51
Last Modified:07 Dec 2020 15:19

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