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Projecting ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry--climate models weighted by model performance and independence

Amos, M. and Young, P. J. and Hosking, J. S. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Abraham, N. L. and Akiyoshi, H. and Archibald, A. T. and Bekki, S. and Deushi, M. and Jöckel, Patrick and Kinnison, D. and Kirner, O. and Kunze, M. and Marchand, M. and Plummer, D. A. and Saint-Martin, D. and Sudo, K. and Tilmes, S. and Yamashita, Y. (2020) Projecting ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry--climate models weighted by model performance and independence. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), 20 (16), pp. 9961-9977. Copernicus Publications. doi: 10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020. ISSN 1680-7316.

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Official URL: https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/20/9961/2020/

Abstract

Calculating a multi-model mean, a commonly used method for ensemble averaging, assumes model independence and equal model skill. Sharing of model components amongst families of models and research centres, conflated by growing ensemble size, means model independence cannot be assumed and is hard to quantify. We present a methodology to produce a weighted-model ensemble projection, accounting for model performance and model independence. Model weights are calculated by comparing model hindcasts to a selection of metrics chosen for their physical relevance to the process or phenomena of interest. This weighting methodology is applied to the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) ensemble to investigate Antarctic ozone depletion and subsequent recovery. The weighted mean projects an ozone recovery to 1980 levels, by 2056 with a 95 % confidence interval (2052–2060), 4 years earlier than the most recent study. Perfect-model testing and out-of-sample testing validate the results and show a greater projective skill than a standard multi-model mean. Interestingly, the construction of a weighted mean also provides insight into model performance and dependence between the models. This weighting methodology is robust to both model and metric choices and therefore has potential applications throughout the climate and chemistry–climate modelling communities.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/135811/
Document Type:Article
Title:Projecting ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry--climate models weighted by model performance and independence
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Amos, M.Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UKhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1166-0915
Young, P. J.Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UKhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5608-8887
Hosking, J. S.British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UKhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3646-3504
Lamarque, J.-F.National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado, USAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4225-5074
Abraham, N. L.Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3750-3544
Akiyoshi, H.National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6463-9004
Archibald, A. T.5Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9302-4180
Bekki, S.LATMOS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, Francehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5538-0800
Deushi, M.Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, JapanUNSPECIFIED
Jöckel, PatrickDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8964-1394
Kinnison, D.National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado, USAUNSPECIFIED
Kirner, O.Steinbuch Centre for Computing, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germanyhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5668-6177
Kunze, M.Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germanyhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9608-1823
Marchand, M.LATMOS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, FranceUNSPECIFIED
Plummer, D. A.Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Canadahttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8087-3976
Saint-Martin, D.Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Canadahttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8478-6914
Sudo, K.Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5013-4168
Tilmes, S.National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado, USAUNSPECIFIED
Yamashita, Y.National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6813-4668
Date:26 August 2020
Journal or Publication Title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:20
DOI:10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020
Page Range:pp. 9961-9977
Publisher:Copernicus Publications
ISSN:1680-7316
Status:Published
Keywords:stratospheric ozone, recovery, chemistry climate modelling, ESCiMo, CCMI, EMAC, MESSy, antarctic
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Project Climatic relevance of atmospheric tracer gases, aerosols and clouds, R - Atmospheric and climate research
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Jöckel, Dr. Patrick
Deposited On:02 Sep 2020 12:10
Last Modified:02 Sep 2020 12:10

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