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Future trends in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in CCMI models

Abalos, Marta and Orbe, C. and Kinnison, D. E. and Plummer, D. A. and Oman, L. D. and Jöckel, Patrick and Morgenstern, O. and Garcia, R. R. and Zeng, G. and Stone, K. A. and Dameris, Martin (2020) Future trends in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in CCMI models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), 20 (11), pp. 6883-6901. Copernicus Publications. doi: 10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020. ISSN 1680-7316.

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Official URL: https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/20/6883/2020/

Abstract

One of the key questions in the air quality and climate sciences is how tropospheric ozone concentrations will change in the future. This will depend on two factors: changes in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and changes in tropospheric chemistry. Here we aim to identify robust changes in STT using simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) under a common climate change scenario (RCP6.0). We use two idealized stratospheric tracers to isolate changes in transport: stratospheric ozone (O3S), which is exactly like ozone but has no chemical sources in the troposphere, and st80, a passive tracer with fixed volume mixing ratio in the stratosphere. We find a robust increase in the tropospheric columns of these two tracers across the models. In particular, stratospheric ozone in the troposphere is projected to increase 10 %–16 % by the end of the 21st century in the RCP6.0 scenario. Future STT is enhanced in the subtropics due to the strengthening of the shallow branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) in the lower stratosphere and of the upper part of the Hadley cell in the upper troposphere. The acceleration of the deep branch of the BDC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and changes in eddy transport contribute to increased STT at high latitudes. These STT trends are caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) increases, while phasing out of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) does not lead to robust transport changes. Nevertheless, the decline of ODS increases the reservoir of ozone in the lower stratosphere, which results in enhanced STT of O3S at middle and high latitudes. A higher emission scenario (RCP8.5) produces stronger STT trends, with increases in tropospheric column O3S more than 3 times larger than those in the RCP6.0 scenario by the end of the 21st century.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/135279/
Document Type:Article
Title:Future trends in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport in CCMI models
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Abalos, MartaUniv. Complutense, Madrid, Spanienhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1267-5115
Orbe, C.NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USAUNSPECIFIED
Kinnison, D. E.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Plummer, D. A.Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Canadahttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8087-3976
Oman, L. D.NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Jöckel, PatrickDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8964-1394
Morgenstern, O.NIWA, Wellington, Neuseelandhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9967-9740
Garcia, R. R.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6963-4592
Zeng, G.NIWA, Wellington, Neuseelandhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9356-5021
Stone, K. A.Univ. of Melbourne, Australienhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2721-8785
Dameris, MartinDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Date:11 June 2020
Journal or Publication Title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:20
DOI:10.5194/acp-20-6883-2020
Page Range:pp. 6883-6901
Publisher:Copernicus Publications
ISSN:1680-7316
Status:Published
Keywords:ESCiMo, EMAC, CCMI, Earth System Modelling, Chemistry Climate Model, stratosphere-to-troposphere transport, MESSy
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Transport und Klima
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Jöckel, Dr. Patrick
Deposited On:15 Jun 2020 10:23
Last Modified:13 Jan 2021 20:20

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