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The evolutionary path of automobility in BRICS countries

Seum, Stefan und Schulz, Angelika und Kuhnimhof, Tobias (2020) The evolutionary path of automobility in BRICS countries. Journal of Transport Geography. Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102739. ISSN 0966-6923.

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Kurzfassung

Projections indicate that global transport may more than double by 2050. Future car stock and use are of paramount importance for drafting policy measures and for assessing emerging technology developments. This paper uses a unique forecasting approach combining quantitative data and qualitative expert judgements. Based on the historic development of vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) in four OECD countries, the approach assesses potential future development paths for BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and derives VKT saturation levels for these. For this purpose, we investigated eight factors with influence on car ownership and car use. A group of experts established factor values for the BRICS countries and compared these to the factor values in the OECD countries. Subsequently, we linked the factor values to levels of car use. Among the BRICS countries, we expect the lowest VKT saturation levels for India and China, mainly but not exclusively due to their spatial structures and transport policies. Spatial structures, socio-economic legacies and policies, among other factors, are leading to higher expected VKT saturation levels in Brazil, Russia and South Africa. Those countries also face challenges to establish alternatives to the private car.

elib-URL des Eintrags:https://elib.dlr.de/135080/
Dokumentart:Zeitschriftenbeitrag
Titel:The evolutionary path of automobility in BRICS countries
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iDORCID Put Code
Seum, StefanStefan.Seum (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9396-0128NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Schulz, AngelikaAngelika.Schulz (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8881-592XNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Kuhnimhof, TobiasKuhnimhof (at) isb.rwth-aachen.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3028-3040NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:26 Mai 2020
Erschienen in:Journal of Transport Geography
Referierte Publikation:Ja
Open Access:Ja
Gold Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Ja
DOI:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102739
Verlag:Elsevier
ISSN:0966-6923
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:vehicle kilometers traveled, private car use, transport demand, BRICS countries, emerging economies.
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Verkehr
HGF - Programmthema:Verkehrssystem
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Verkehr
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):V - Transport und Klima (alt)
Standort: Berlin-Adlershof
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Verkehrsforschung
Hinterlegt von: Seum, Stefan
Hinterlegt am:16 Jun 2020 11:11
Letzte Änderung:23 Okt 2023 14:03

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