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The evolutionary path of automobility in BRICS countries

Seum, Stefan and Schulz, Angelika and Kuhnimhof, Tobias (2020) The evolutionary path of automobility in BRICS countries. Journal of Transport Geography. Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102739. ISSN 0966-6923.

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Abstract

Projections indicate that global transport may more than double by 2050. Future car stock and use are of paramount importance for drafting policy measures and for assessing emerging technology developments. This paper uses a unique forecasting approach combining quantitative data and qualitative expert judgements. Based on the historic development of vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) in four OECD countries, the approach assesses potential future development paths for BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and derives VKT saturation levels for these. For this purpose, we investigated eight factors with influence on car ownership and car use. A group of experts established factor values for the BRICS countries and compared these to the factor values in the OECD countries. Subsequently, we linked the factor values to levels of car use. Among the BRICS countries, we expect the lowest VKT saturation levels for India and China, mainly but not exclusively due to their spatial structures and transport policies. Spatial structures, socio-economic legacies and policies, among other factors, are leading to higher expected VKT saturation levels in Brazil, Russia and South Africa. Those countries also face challenges to establish alternatives to the private car.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/135080/
Document Type:Article
Title:The evolutionary path of automobility in BRICS countries
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Seum, StefanStefan.Seum (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9396-0128
Schulz, AngelikaAngelika.Schulz (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8881-592X
Kuhnimhof, TobiasKuhnimhof (at) isb.rwth-aachen.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3028-3040
Date:26 May 2020
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Transport Geography
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102739
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0966-6923
Status:Published
Keywords:vehicle kilometers traveled, private car use, transport demand, BRICS countries, emerging economies.
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Transport und Klima
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transport Research
Deposited By: Seum, Stefan
Deposited On:16 Jun 2020 11:11
Last Modified:23 Jun 2020 13:22

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