Nowack, Peer and Runge, Jakob and Eyring, Veronika and Haigh, J.D. (2020) Causal networks for climate model evaluation and constrained projections. Nature Communications, 11, 1415/1-11. Nature Publishing Group. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-15195-y. ISSN 2041-1723.
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Official URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15195-y
Abstract
Global climate models are central tools for understanding past and future climate change.The assessment of model skill, in turn, can benefit from modern data science approaches.Here we apply causal discovery algorithms to sea level pressure data from a large set ofclimate model simulations and, as a proxy for observations, meteorological reanalyses. Wedemonstrate how the resulting causal networks (fingerprints) offer an objective pathway forprocess-oriented model evaluation. Models withfingerprints closer to observations betterreproduce important precipitation patterns over highly populated areas such as the Indiansubcontinent, Africa, East Asia, Europe and North America. We further identify expectedmodel interdependencies due to shared development backgrounds. Finally, our networkmetrics provide stronger relationships for constraining precipitation projections under climatechange as compared to traditional evaluation metrics for storm tracks or precipitation itself.Such emergent relationships highlight the potential of causal networks to constrain long-standing uncertainties in climate change projections.
Item URL in elib: | https://elib.dlr.de/134643/ | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Document Type: | Article | ||||||||||||||||||||
Title: | Causal networks for climate model evaluation and constrained projections | ||||||||||||||||||||
Authors: |
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Date: | 16 March 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Nature Communications | ||||||||||||||||||||
Refereed publication: | Yes | ||||||||||||||||||||
Open Access: | Yes | ||||||||||||||||||||
Gold Open Access: | Yes | ||||||||||||||||||||
In SCOPUS: | Yes | ||||||||||||||||||||
In ISI Web of Science: | Yes | ||||||||||||||||||||
Volume: | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-020-15195-y | ||||||||||||||||||||
Page Range: | 1415/1-11 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group | ||||||||||||||||||||
ISSN: | 2041-1723 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Status: | Published | ||||||||||||||||||||
Keywords: | climate model evaluation, constrained projections, causal networks | ||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Research field: | Aeronautics, Space and Transport | ||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Program: | Space | ||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Program Themes: | Earth Observation | ||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Research area: | Raumfahrt | ||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Program: | R EO - Earth Observation | ||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Research theme (Project): | R - Atmospheric and climate research | ||||||||||||||||||||
Location: | Oberpfaffenhofen | ||||||||||||||||||||
Institutes and Institutions: | Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Model Evaluation and Analysis Institute of Data Science > Datamangagement and Analysis | ||||||||||||||||||||
Deposited By: | Langer, Michaela | ||||||||||||||||||||
Deposited On: | 28 Apr 2020 14:14 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Last Modified: | 27 May 2020 15:51 |
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