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Causal networks for climate model evaluation and constrained projections

Nowack, Peer and Runge, Jakob and Eyring, Veronika and Haigh, J.D. (2020) Causal networks for climate model evaluation and constrained projections. Nature Communications, 11, 1415/1-11. Nature Publishing Group. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-15195-y. ISSN 2041-1723.

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Official URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15195-y


Global climate models are central tools for understanding past and future climate change.The assessment of model skill, in turn, can benefit from modern data science approaches.Here we apply causal discovery algorithms to sea level pressure data from a large set ofclimate model simulations and, as a proxy for observations, meteorological reanalyses. Wedemonstrate how the resulting causal networks (fingerprints) offer an objective pathway forprocess-oriented model evaluation. Models withfingerprints closer to observations betterreproduce important precipitation patterns over highly populated areas such as the Indiansubcontinent, Africa, East Asia, Europe and North America. We further identify expectedmodel interdependencies due to shared development backgrounds. Finally, our networkmetrics provide stronger relationships for constraining precipitation projections under climatechange as compared to traditional evaluation metrics for storm tracks or precipitation itself.Such emergent relationships highlight the potential of causal networks to constrain long-standing uncertainties in climate change projections.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/134643/
Document Type:Article
Title:Causal networks for climate model evaluation and constrained projections
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Nowack, PeerGrantham Institute, Imperial College, London, UKUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Eyring, VeronikaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6887-4885UNSPECIFIED
Haigh, J.D.Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, UKUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:16 March 2020
Journal or Publication Title:Nature Communications
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Page Range:1415/1-11
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Keywords:climate model evaluation, constrained projections, causal networks
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Atmospheric and climate research
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Model Evaluation and Analysis
Institute of Data Science > Datamangagement and Analysis
Deposited By: Langer, Michaela
Deposited On:28 Apr 2020 14:14
Last Modified:27 May 2020 15:51

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