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Estimating the Effective Radiative Forcing of Contrail Cirrus

Bickel, Marius and Ponater, Michael and Bock, Lisa and Burkhardt, Ulrike and Reineke, Svenja (2020) Estimating the Effective Radiative Forcing of Contrail Cirrus. Journal of Climate, 33 (5), pp. 1991-2005. American Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0467.1. ISSN 0894-8755.

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Official URL: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0467.1

Abstract

Evidence from previous climate model simulations has suggested a potentially low efficacy of contrails to force global mean surface temperature changes. In this paper, a climate model with a state-of-the-art contrail cirrus representation is used for fixed sea surface temperature simulations in order to determine the effective radiative forcing (ERF) from contrail cirrus. ERF is expected to be a good metric for intercomparing the quantitative importance of different contributions to surface temperature and climate impact. Substantial upscaling of aviation density is necessary to ensure statistically significant results from our simulations. The contrail cirrus ERF is found to be less than 50% of the respective instantaneous or stratosphere adjusted radiative forcings, with a best estimate of roughly 35%. The reduction of ERF is much more substantial for contrail cirrus than it is for a CO2 increase when both stratosphere adjusted forcings are of similar magnitude. Analysis of all rapid radiative adjustments contributing to the ERF indicates that the reduction is mainly induced by a compensating effect of natural clouds that provide a negative feedback. Compared to the CO2 reference case, a less positive combined water vapor and lapse rate adjustment also contributes to a more distinct reduction of contrail cirrus ERF, but not as much as the natural cloud adjustment. Based on the experience gained in this paper, respective contrail cirrus simulations with interactive ocean will be performed as the next step toward establishing contrail cirrus efficacy. ERF results of contrail cirrus from other climate models equipped with suitable parameterizations are regarded as highly desirable.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/134046/
Document Type:Article
Additional Information:The "Open Access Option" of AMS was selected and paid for; see details under https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/ethical-guidelines-and-ams-policies/open-access-for-ams-journals-and-bams/
Title:Estimating the Effective Radiative Forcing of Contrail Cirrus
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Bickel, MariusDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7872-3706
Ponater, MichaelDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9771-4733
Bock, LisaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7058-5938
Burkhardt, UlrikeDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0742-7176
Reineke, SvenjaDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Date:6 February 2020
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Climate
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:33
DOI :10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0467.1
Page Range:pp. 1991-2005
Publisher:American Meteorological Society
ISSN:0894-8755
Status:Published
Keywords:contrail cirrus, effective radiative forcing, rapid radiative adjustments
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:air traffic management and operations
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Model Evaluation and Analysis
Deposited By: Bickel, Marius
Deposited On:07 Feb 2020 11:18
Last Modified:07 Feb 2020 11:18

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