Bickel, Marius und Ponater, Michael und Bock, Lisa und Burkhardt, Ulrike und Reineke, Svenja (2020) Estimating the Effective Radiative Forcing of Contrail Cirrus. Journal of Climate, 33 (5), Seiten 1991-2005. American Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0467.1. ISSN 0894-8755.
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Offizielle URL: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0467.1
Kurzfassung
Evidence from previous climate model simulations has suggested a potentially low efficacy of contrails to force global mean surface temperature changes. In this paper, a climate model with a state-of-the-art contrail cirrus representation is used for fixed sea surface temperature simulations in order to determine the effective radiative forcing (ERF) from contrail cirrus. ERF is expected to be a good metric for intercomparing the quantitative importance of different contributions to surface temperature and climate impact. Substantial upscaling of aviation density is necessary to ensure statistically significant results from our simulations. The contrail cirrus ERF is found to be less than 50% of the respective instantaneous or stratosphere adjusted radiative forcings, with a best estimate of roughly 35%. The reduction of ERF is much more substantial for contrail cirrus than it is for a CO2 increase when both stratosphere adjusted forcings are of similar magnitude. Analysis of all rapid radiative adjustments contributing to the ERF indicates that the reduction is mainly induced by a compensating effect of natural clouds that provide a negative feedback. Compared to the CO2 reference case, a less positive combined water vapor and lapse rate adjustment also contributes to a more distinct reduction of contrail cirrus ERF, but not as much as the natural cloud adjustment. Based on the experience gained in this paper, respective contrail cirrus simulations with interactive ocean will be performed as the next step toward establishing contrail cirrus efficacy. ERF results of contrail cirrus from other climate models equipped with suitable parameterizations are regarded as highly desirable.
elib-URL des Eintrags: | https://elib.dlr.de/134046/ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Dokumentart: | Zeitschriftenbeitrag | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Zusätzliche Informationen: | The "Open Access Option" of AMS was selected and paid for; see details under https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/ethical-guidelines-and-ams-policies/open-access-for-ams-journals-and-bams/ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Titel: | Estimating the Effective Radiative Forcing of Contrail Cirrus | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Autoren: |
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Datum: | 6 Februar 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Erschienen in: | Journal of Climate | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Referierte Publikation: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Open Access: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Gold Open Access: | Nein | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
In SCOPUS: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
In ISI Web of Science: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Band: | 33 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0467.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Seitenbereich: | Seiten 1991-2005 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Verlag: | American Meteorological Society | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
ISSN: | 0894-8755 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Status: | veröffentlicht | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stichwörter: | contrail cirrus, effective radiative forcing, rapid radiative adjustments | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Forschungsbereich: | Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Programm: | Luftfahrt | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Programmthema: | Luftverkehrsmanagement und Flugbetrieb | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Schwerpunkt: | Luftfahrt | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Forschungsgebiet: | L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben): | L - Klima, Wetter und Umwelt (alt) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Standort: | Oberpfaffenhofen | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Institute & Einrichtungen: | Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Erdsystem-Modellierung Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Erdsystemmodell -Evaluation und -Analyse | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hinterlegt von: | Bickel, Marius | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hinterlegt am: | 07 Feb 2020 11:18 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Letzte Änderung: | 24 Okt 2023 14:27 |
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