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Frequency of severe thunderstorms across Europe expected to increase in the 21st century due to rising instability

Rädler, Anja and Groenemeijer, Pieter and Faust, Eberhard and Sausen, Robert and Pucik, Tomas (2019) Frequency of severe thunderstorms across Europe expected to increase in the 21st century due to rising instability. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2, 30/1-5. Springer. doi: 10.1038/s41612-019-0083-7. ISSN 2397-3722.

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Official URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-019-0083-7


We show that the frequency of damaging convective weather events including lightning, hail and severe wind gusts will likely increase over Europe until the end of this century. We apply a set of additive regression models to an ensemble of 14 regional climate simulations and find that convective instability will increase as a result of rising humidity near the earth’s surface. Even though a slight decrease in thunderstorm occurrence in southwestern and southeastern Europe is projected, the probability of severe weather will increase throughout Europe, in particular for very large hail. It might be expected that Arctic amplification would lead to a weaker jet stream and, thus lower vertical wind shear, but we find instead that the jet changes little or even increases in situations with convective instability. To cope with the rising hazard probabilities, risk models will need to be adapted, while investment in sturdier structures, like the use of hardened glass in greenhouses or solar panels, will become more cost-effective. Furthermore, the need will grow to advise the public on loss prevention by taking precautionary measures as storms approach.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/129426/
Document Type:Article
Title:Frequency of severe thunderstorms across Europe expected to increase in the 21st century due to rising instability
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Rädler, AnjaMunich Re, Münchenhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5051-1920
Groenemeijer, PieterESSL, Oberpfaffenhofenhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4223-5831
Faust, EberhardMunich Re, Münchenhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0036-9919
Sausen, RobertDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9572-2393
Pucik, TomasESSL, OberpfaffenhofenUNSPECIFIED
Journal or Publication Title:npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Page Range:30/1-5
Keywords:extreme events, climate change, thunderstorm, statistical model
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Transport und Klima
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Deposited By: Sausen, Prof.Dr. Robert
Deposited On:15 Oct 2019 11:20
Last Modified:31 Oct 2020 04:35

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